Ending more than a year of ambivalence over the Odisha PCC leadership change, the AICC has finally given the rein of the State unit to Niranjan Patnaik, who was a four-term MlA and a three-term Minister, besides the PCC president from 2011 to 2013.
After the 2009 Assembly poll debacle of the Congress and the exit of former CM late JB Patnaik from the State politics, Patnaik was replaced from the post in a surprise turn of events , while he was flexing his muscles to take on the ruling BJD in the 2014. His successor Jayadev Jena had faced a defeat in the 2014 poll, reducing the Congress party’s MlA strength to 16 and lok Sabha strength to zero with as many as 40 Assembly candidates suffering severe causalities by losing poll deposits.
As a consequence of the poll disaster, the AICC put a young leader, a former Minister in the State Government Prasad Harichandan as the OPCC president in December 2014. Earlier, leadership criteria of SC, ST and seniority were replaced by youth and OBC one. But there was further loss of Congress votes from 25 per cent in the 2014 poll to 17 per cent in 2017 PRI –ZP poll with the BJP replacing the Congress as the second party in voting percentage as well as in the number of Zilla Parishad seats.
The Congress legislature Party (ClP)–PCC fight emerged from the difference of opinion on Mahanadi issue which later intensified into a PCC-ClP deadlock. The ClP demanded the replacement of the PCC president. Though the AICC had studied the situation, it used wait and watch approach. It resulted in desertion of many Congress cadres to other parties.
Perhaps the combined effect of the marginalisation of party’s vote to 5 per cent in the Beijpeur Assembly by-poll, the desertion of the party’s former Union Minister Chandrasekhar Sahoo and his joining the BJD and threat of a split in the party by way of defection forced the AICC to change the OPCC president ultimately.
The Odisha-in charge AICC general secretary was replaced first, followed by the appointment of a jumbo team of AICC officer- bearers for Odisha which included three AICC secretaries and one assistant secretary. Finally, the AICC settled its confusion over age, caste and regional criteria and put Patnaik as the Odisha chief. Though the Congress prioritises young leadership, it chose the Punjab’s senior leader model where Captain Amarinder Singh brought success to the party. It has also adopted a team –leadership model by appointing three younger working presidents from the three regions of the State such as MlA Naba Das, former MP Pradeep Majhi and MlA Cheeranjib Biswal. Former Union Minister and the prominent western Odisha leader Bhakta Das was also made the Campaign Committee chairman. To end factionalism, a few posts were also created to accommodate senior leaders like former Union Minister Srikant Jena, former CM Hemanda Biswal, former PCC president Jayadev Jena and so on.
The welcome ceremony organised at the PCC office indicated an unprecedented enthusiasm among the party caders towards the new PCC president. The new team has resulted in the restoration of faith of party cadres as well as public on the Congress which shall check the ongoing defection process. While the PCC president is aiming at 80-85 Assembly seats in the forthcoming 2019 poll and some Congress leaders are talking about repetition of history of 1995 poll, where the Congress party had acquired 80 seats from a marginal 10 of 1990, it is too early to make an assessment.
The challenge before Patnaik is to re-occupy the current 15 Assembly seats, bag additional Assembly seats and win a few lS seats. Three major constraints are the absence of grassroots party leaders like the sarpanches and the Samiti members, non- availability of sufficient time before the general elections and the absence of winnable candidates in many Assembly and lS seats. But Patnaik has an extensive poll experience to meet the constraints and challenges.
The 2014 witnessed the win of Congress MlAs from Bijepur, Jharsuguda, Talsara (ST), Sundergarh (ST), Balangir from the west Odisha region. In the south Odisha region, it had won from laxmipur (ST), Kotpad (ST), Jeypore, Koraput (SC), Dabugain (ST), Parlakhemundi and G Udayagiri Assembly constituencies. In the coastal Odisha, it won from Salepur, Aul, Rajnagar and Jagatsinghpur constituencies. Sadly, the party lost its Bijepur Assembly seat to the BJD in the recently held by -poll. Except Kotpad (22 per cent lead) and laxmipur (19 per cent lead), the winning margin was very narrow in other Assembly constituencies in 2014 poll. Congress won in Jharsuguda by 7 per cent, Talsara by 1 per cent, Sundargarh by 8 per cent, Balangir by 8 per cent, Jeypore by 6 per cent, Koraput by 4 per cent, Dabugaon by 4 per cent, Paralakhemundi by 1 per cent, Udayagiri by 8 per cent, Salipur by 1 per cent, Aul by 2 per cent, Rajnagar by 5 per cent and Jagatsinghour by 2 per cent votes in 2014.
Perhaps, the narrow margin win of many Congress MlAs was creating fear in them and pushing them to demand PCC presidentship for Patnaik whom they consider as a vote builder.
The sudden emergence of the Congress in the State shall obviously change the organisational and the poll strategies of the BJP and the BJD. The 2018 UlB polls shall be a semi-final test for the Congress.
There are four assumptions relating to the poll prospects of Odisha opposition in 2019. If both the BJP and the Congress rise equally but marginally, the BJD shall win poll due to the division of non-BJD votes. Secondly, if either the Congress or the BJP rises aggressively, it shall eat both opponents’ votes and come to power. Secondly, if both the Congress and the BJP rise aggressively, a coalition Government shall be formed. If Congress wants to reach the half Assembly seat mark of 74, which appears unrealistic now, it has to focus on constituency political re-engineering and poll management.
(The writer is a freelance journalist)