A warfare of a different sort between the Maoists and the police is on display in Odisha. A 'psychological' war and a 'mind game' are on for area domination.
When the State police have apparently succeeded in orchestrating large-scale surrenders of Maoist supporters in Malkangiri and elsewhere, the Red rebels have hit back by sharp killing of police informers who have seemingly given the State police an upper hand in their tactical warfare against the left Wing Extremists (lWEs).
Post the prized neutralisation of senior commander Sonadhar, ultras struck vengefully killing more than half a dozen police informers in Malkangiri area. Moreover, the extremists have successfully held two arms training camps in the region.
As of now, Odisha is the only State in the country where almost 80 per cent of civilians killed by the lWEs are police informers. Such a proportion is not even exhibited by Chhattisgarh. When for every 10 civilians killed by the Maoists, eight are police informers in Odisha; the proportion of police informers killed in Chhattisgarh is mere five in every ten civilians killed.
As Maoists have a sound Human Intelligence (HUMINT) network, they launch well-orchestrated selective strikes to inflict heavy damage on security apparatus. Of late, the Odisha police too have succeeded in weaving a HUMINT web around Maoists, thanks to large-scale surrenders so that it could go for incisive strikes on top guerrilla leaders as evidenced by Sonadhar killing.
By the end of September, as high as 62 left-Wing extremists had surrendered in Odisha. Significantly, the rate of surrender in 2015 is on par with 2014, when the State saw almost a century of surrenders.
However, the area domination is still not done by the State police as evidenced by three Jan Adalats by lWEs being held with impunity in the region.
Frequency of holding such kangaroo courts is almost on par with that in 2014. A number of ambushes on security personnel too have the same frequency of 2014. However, when the Maoist ambushes killed three security personnel; five cadres were neutralised by the police till September end. The intensity of State police operation against the ultras is reflected by the fact of engaging at least one encounter every month, though experts at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) felt a need to increase the frequency.
According to IPCS expert Bibhu Prasad Routray, the lWE violence has definitely seen a scale-down in 2014 and 2015 so far. Data with the State Home Department reveals a fall in total incidents to around 64 till September end from over 84 in the same period in 2014. Experts, however, don't foresee an endgame. Reason: Recruitment of cadres by Maoists is still on.
"They are in consolidation mode preparing for up-scaling attacks in future. But for the State Government, it is the right time to make inroads and gain an upper hand to take on future escalation," Routray counselled.
Experts also look positively at the recent appointment of top bureaucrats by Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik to oversee development works in Maoist-infested districts. Reason: Union Home Ministry recently asked the Naxal affected States to bring in deliverable District Magistrates to wing up development works to create a wedge in local support.