The Odisha Economic Survey 2015-16, tabled in the State Assembly, despite all attempts at cosmetic window-dressing, does try to conceal the reality if one reads in between the lines. The survey states that there is a pronounced structural shift from agriculture to non-agriculture sectors. It further claims that this has been the trend from 2011-12 onwards. At the same time, the survey also indicates that there is an increase in the share of marginal workers in the total workforce from 33% in 2001 to 39% in 2011. The State’s public sector predominates the economy in terms of employment absorptions.
Despite asserting that there is a pronounced structural shift from agriculture to non-agriculture, the survey innocuously states that agriculture continues to be the single largest employer of unorganised workforce in terms of cultivators and agricultural workers, which form 62% of the total workforce as in 2011. The livelihood dependence of rural people in agriculture, both direct and indirect, still remains very high after a significant structural shift towards non-farm sector as noticed in the economy in recent years.
If one juxtaposes the professed structural shift with the reality quoted above, the inevitable inference would be that there is a crisis in the agricultural sector. The average share of broad agriculture sector to GSDP (at current prices) has declined to 20% between 2011-12 and 2014-15. The contribution of crops and livestock sub-sector has declined to less than 14% in 2015-16 of GSDP from an overwhelming 60% of GSDP in the 1960s. By the end of 2011-12, Odisha with 29% of irrigated land for all principal crops lagged behind the national average of 47%. Rice continues to be the principal crop in the State covering 74% of the total cultivated area. Between 2008-09 and 2012-13, the rice area has depleted by 4.32 lakh hectares. The area under oilseeds has declined by 5.36% during 2014-15 over 2013-14. The average yield rate of rice is asserted to have increased between 2013-14 and 2014-15. But the yield rate of jute, ragi and groundnut has declined during 2014-15 over the previous year.
The survey asserts that the State Government has taken a number of new initiatives to implement various programmes, viz., special crop, specific intervention on floriculture, coconut and banana. It has been stated that the yield rate of food grains in Odisha is below the average yield rate in some of the major States and is below the all-India level. It has not been adequately appreciated that he horticulture sector (like coconut, banana, cashew nuts, etc.) has also seriously been dampened by a regressive land Reforms Act, which does not recognise these as “plantations” but recognises coco, tea, rubber and coffee. Coconut production is not sufficient to meet the demands of the State itself. In the case of banana, the existing produce is not sufficient to cater to the demands of the State. When hundreds of betel vines were raised to the ground in Posco-like operations, betel cultivation has not been analysed in great detail. With the given anti-plantation legislative policy, the above projected picture has not been adequately analysed in the survey and the State Budget has appropriately not dealt with these vital issues. As per Government of India estimates, during 2011-12, 29% of the areas under principal crop in Odisha is irrigated compared to 47% for the whole of India, with Punjab having 98% irrigation under the principal crops during the same period. The analysis of the irrigation sector is skimpy and cryptic. We should be targeting a jump of 35% of the cultivable area to be our goal for achievement. Many irrigational modes stated in the survey depend on the vagaries of monsoon, and they, therefore, provide no solace during the period of failure of monsoon. The details as extracted above from the Odisha Economic Survey 2015-16 do not indicate any advantageous structural change shift but in fact a structural decline in the agro and allied sectors. It is time that we accepted this situation as this sector continues to employ and provide livelihood to the largest number of the population.
In the industry sector, as on March 2015, Odisha is stated to have 213 large industries and 39 medium industries operating in 22 districts. These are dominantly metals-based industries. The State Government, it is claimed, signed 93 MoUs for various units like steel, aluminum, alumina, coal-based thermal, IPP, auto ancillary and other downstream industries. After withdrawal of the Arcellor-Mittal, 48 MoUs remained with significantly depleted production target of about 65 MTPA. By the end of 2014-15, 1.06 lakh MSME units are stated to be operating in Odisha with an investment of Rs 7,906.25 crore. Avoiding a detailed critical analysis of this sector, the survey plays with the figures of the proposed investment and proposed employment. There is no commodity-based analysis to guide the real trends in this sector.
The survey states that the State in fact is considered as the land of handicrafts, which are an integral part of our cultural heritage. This sector provides employment to lakhs of artisans belonging to weaker sections of our society. This sector also provides seasonal employment to the underemployed and requires less of capital investment. The productivity and the gross production in the handicraft sector have showed a drastic decline. The survey admits that the handicraft and cottage industry sector in Odisha exhibits a declining trend in terms of production as well as employment generation. This is an alarming symptom requiring immediate attention.
In the handloom, textile and allied sector, there was also a decline in the number of weavers. More than one-third of the looms in the primary weavers’ cooperative sector were nonfunctional. The sericulture sector, which is an agro-based one, has either been stagnating or has been declining.
With this scenario, the Budget proposals do not appear to be adequately targeted ones. The trends indicated above, as narrated in the Odisha Economic Survey 2015-16, are a matter of concern particularly for the youth of the State, who are the largest in number. It is their future that is going to be affected one way or the other by the measures that are to be implemented now. It is for them to wake up and intervene so as to protect a balanced environment and a more prosperous future for themselves. They have to study the lack of emphasis on very sensitive and vital sectors and over-enthusiasm on investments in projects depleting the nonrenewable natural resources sector. The metal boom is over. The plunder of metal has taken place and is continuing to take place. It is the younger generation which is being denied its future with the distortions that are being perpetrated. An intervention through constructive criticism is the need of the hour. The problems are not confined to any particular section of our society. And, this obviously concerns us all!
(The writer, a Senior Advocate, is a former All India Service officer, a former diplomat, a former editor, a former President of Orissa High Court Bar Association and a former Advocate General of Odisha. jayantdas@hotmail.com)