The population of India, according to Census 2011, is 1.21 billion. By 2025, India with a population of 1.46 billion will overtake China with a population of 1.39 billion (United Nations Population Fund, UNFPA, 2009).
According to UNFPA (2011), population of India will continue to increase and is likely to stabilise around 2060 AD at 1.7 billion before it begins to decline. It is necessary to examine if at the current rate of increase in foodgrain production, the country can produce enough food grains to feed 1.7 billion people by 2060.
The Government of India reports foodgrain production of the country every year in ‘Economic Survey’ before presentation of the Annual Budget. According to the data given in these reports the 5 years averages of food grain production of India in 1960-65 was 83 million tons (mt). It increased in successive years and was 255 mt in 2010-15. Based on such data foodgrain production by 2060 can be projected by plotting the average production figures for every five years from 1960-65 to 2010-15 and drawing a linear forecast trend line up to 2060. (It is better to use 5 year averages to avoid yearly fluctuations of production due to climatic aberrations). Such an exercise gives a probable food grain production of 400 mt by 2060 if the current trend of increase in food grain production is sustained in the intervening years. Would this be sufficient to meet the food grain requirement of every individualIJ
The food grain requirement per person per day has been addressed by various committees constituted by the Government of India from time to time and discussed in several reports of statutory organisations. The Planning Commission, Government of India, while fixing poverty line based on income/ food requirement in 1978, had assumed that the calorie standard for a typical individual in rural areas was 2,400 Kcal and in urban areas 2,100 Kcal. The Tendulkar Committee Report of 2009 questioned the calorific requirement as a basis of fixing poverty line. The National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) 61st round of survey (2004-05) found that actual consumption was 2,020 Kcal by urban population and 2,047 Kcal for rural population. The ICMR expert group in (1990) suggested that 2,200 Kcal/ capita/ day could be taken up as weighted average to plan production of energy giving food stuffs. In terms of production of food grains it translates to cereals 490g and pulses 53g, with a total of 543g/ capita/day. At a projected production
level of 400 mt in 2060 and a stabilized population of 1.7 billion, the food grains available would be 759 g/day/person (adult equivalent). The current availability of food grains in g/person/day is 511g (Economic Survey, 2014-15, Government of India).
The consumption pattern of food may change in future with the change in the life style of the people. The pressure on food grains may decline with more people choosing a protein rich non-vegetarian food. However, food grains have various other uses such as animal feed, industrial use and export to earn foreign exchange, maintaining adequate reserve for use in lean years of production due to climate change uncertainties and to meet international obligations to help other countries. At a total food grain production level of 400 mt and available food grains of 759 g/day/person, we may almost be able to meet most of our obligations.
Assuming 400 mt food grains need to be produced by 2060 AD, what could be the yield levels of two of the most important food grains, rice and wheat, which constitute about 75 per cent of food grains. We need to produce a total of 300 mt. (75 per cent) from these two food grains (150 mt of rice and 150 mt of wheat). (The trend line for production of rice and wheat shows that they will merge around 2040, and will contribute equally to future food grain production).
The area under rice and wheat has virtually remained unchanged over the years and is likely to remain so (with minor changes) until 2060. For example area under rice was 42.7 mha (million hectares) in 1990-91 and 42.8 mha in 2012-13. Wheat area increased from 24.2 mha in 1990-91 to 28.5 mha in 2009-10 but stagnated at 30.0 mha from 2010-11 to 2013-14.
The area under rice in 2013-14 was 43.9 mha. If we assume rice area may marginally increase to 45 mha by 2060 and we need to produce 150 mt, the yield level required would be 3.3 t/ha. Similarly for wheat assuming an area of 35 mha by 2060, the yield level required to produce 150 mt is 4.3 t/ha.
Such yields are achievable and are now obtained in some of the agriculturally advanced States as well as certain pockets in most of the other States. For example, the average yields of rice (t/ha) from 2011-14 in Punjab was 3.9, Haryana 3.2 and Andhra Pradesh (undivided) 3.1. The average wheat yields for Punjab and Haryana were 4.8 and 4.7 respectively for the same period. However the average yield levels (t/ha) of the country as a whole in 2013-14 were 2.4 for rice and 3.07 for wheat (Agricultural Statistics, 2014, Government of India). There is a yield gap of roughly 1 t/ha for both the crops from the targets fixed for 2060. This can be achieved and possibly exceeded.
The major constraints are irrigation and fertilizer use. The irrigated area under wheat is almost 100 per cent in Punjab and Haryana as against all India averages of 92.9 per cent. In Andhra Pradesh 97 per cent of the area under rice is irrigated as compared to all India average of 58.7 per cent (Agricultural Statistics, 2014, Govt. of India). The average fertilizer use in Punjab, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh from 2011-14 was 236, 203 and 223 (kg/ha) of (N+P+K) respectively as compared to an all India average of 133 kg/ha for the same period.
The challenges are therefore to increase net area under irrigation, efficient and effective use of water resources for crop production, optimum use of fertilizers, adequate and timely supply of other inputs, an effective agricultural extension services programme around the country and adoption of modern technology.
We also need to produce 100 mt of other cereals and pulses. The current production level (2013-14) for coarse cereals is 43.05 mt and pulses 19.27 mt, with a total of 62.32 mt. This is also within reach and can be produced in next 44 years.
We are reasonably confident that we can produce enough food grain to feed a population of 1.7 billion people by 2060. The possible effect of climate change on agricultural production is a major unknown factor and needs an elaborate discussion.
(Former Dean, faculty of Agriculture and former Professor and Head, Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Orissa University of Agriculture and Technology. email:gnmitra@gmail.com)