Any prophecy on election results is a far too dangerous vocation and may also bring immense disrepute once it goes wrong, especially when the polling exercise is not even halfway and is in its nascent stage, precisely because all said and done the mood of the electorate is always unpredictable.
Like, for example, recently while accompanying Lokenath Chaterjee, my friend and Bharatiya Janata Party candidate from the Ballygunge constituency of Kolkata during a door-to-door campaign, a small boy hardly aged between 5-7 years whispered ‘chup-chap kamal chhap’ (that is to vote for kamal or lotus without letting anyone know), this is an incontrovertible evidence of the undercurrent favouring the BJP against the anti-incumbency, much against the general perception, way beyond the scope of identification by our collective cognitive abilities. This is more interesting because Ballygunge constituency has a 54% Muslim population and such an undercurrent is noteworthy given the popular belief about the community’s affinity to the TMC.
Besides, if we sit to observe the manner in which the whole election campaign has been conducted in both West Bengal and Assam, it appears the BJP may in all likelihood be outperforming others in both States or at least seems to be in safer position.
Under such circumstances, the principal goal of other parties seems to be defeating the BJP; that means the BJP is gaining grounds and its presence is much stronger than before in the region. In the long run, this shall mean a lot to the saffron party as winning or losing this time shouldn’t mean a lot because its roots are already penetrating deep and the grip over the region is getting more firm and stronger.
And if not this time, the BJP will certainly win West Bengal in the next elections. What has helped the party strengthen its base in Bengal is that the unwise and miscalculated advances of Mamata Banerjee like patronising violence to succeed politically and institutionalisation of corruption through the party, which she herself has once made a poll issue to wrest the State from Communist control. Also, we can see in Assam and major portion of North-East, that BJP has already erected the edifice of power despite the region being linguistically and culturally different from central India where the party has its major base.
In Bihar, even though Nitish Kumar continues as Chief Minister, the last phase of State elections made the BJP the dominating partner at least in terms of numbers within the ruling coalition. In Odisha, the BJP has become the main opposition.
And with time, events may catapult in favour of the BJP as in many States, where the parties synonymous with individuals or families have ultimately faded into the saffron entity.
The position of the party in northern and western India is already more than sound and it has taken control of the region just like the Congress was doing post 1980s.
In Maharashtra, the elements within the political and police establishments have already caused a huge loss of face to the ruling establishment and this shall definitely favour the BJP.
In the South however, the story is a lot different as South Indians still consider the BJP as the representative of North Indians promoting Hindi. Therefore, alongside the politics of Vikash (development), it needs to do some additional exercise like it won over the Lingayats in Karnataka.
It will have to travel a long way from having many sessions of rendezvous to a relationship with dominant castes in Andhra Pradesh. Apart from this, it would need to find a comfortable ally in one of the Dravida parties to successfully get the foothold in Tamil Nadu.
In Kerala, the religious diversity and social situation being much distinct from the rest of India makes it even tougher for the saffron party. There, the strategy must be aimed at making an inclusive appeal being careful towards the interest of the various segments of the society. As the elections are in progress in Assam and West Bengal, the BJP must ensure that its promises are realistic and deliverable and it shouldn’t take chances in governance once it wins the polls so that those dreaming of “Poriborton” never feel being let down in terms of job, livelihood, ease of doing business and overall social harmony.
(The writer is a lawyer and public policy expert and a Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Law and Media Studies at School of Mass Communication, KIIT University, who is currently on West Bengal tour to study the situation amid elections. He can be reached at sjyotiranjan3@gmail.com)