Yet it's grassroots base unbeatable
In the 2009 Assembly polls, the BJD had bagged 39 per cent of votes and won 103 seats, followed by the Congress with 29 per cent vote share and 27 seats.
The BJP had finished third with 15 per cent votes and six seats. The six Independents took away 9 per cent of votes. The Opposition and the Independents bagged 53 per cent votes together.
In 2014 Assembly poll, the BJD’s vote share increased. It got fattened to 43 per cent and the number of seats increased to 117 seats.
The Congress bagged 26 per cent votes and 16 seats. The BJP finished third with 18 per cent vote share and 10 seats. Two independents bagged 5 per cent of votes.
The Opposition and the Independents bagged 49 per cent votes and their 4 per cent loss from the 2009 went to the BJD.
In the next poll, the vote share of the BJD may not grow further beyond 43 per cent level due to powerful triangular competitive environment.
But it may not fall below the 39 per cent level of 2009 as the BJP and the Congress are yet to strengthen the grass root base in all constituencies, a 2009 scenario.
The BJP improved from its 2014 Assembly performance level in the 2017 Zilla Prishad (ZP) election.
The BJP’s tally increased from 36 ZP seats of 2012 to 306 seats while the ruling BJD’s tally dropped from 651 seats in 2012 to 460 and the Congress ZP seats tally dropped from 126 to 66 seats. The BJP mainly ate away a large portion of the Congress votes in certain regions, though it took some portion of the BJD’s votes in general.
The BJP stood as the second party after the BJD, pushing the Congress to third position with vote dropping to 18 per cent.
After the Panchayat poll, the BJD took up reform measures in the party and Government. It refocused on its strength in terms of its ‘grassroots presence.’
It also introduced new welfare schemes. It was able to checkmate the growth of the BJP ultimately by winning the 2018 Bijepur by-election.
Later, the BJD had won Attabira and Hindol NAC elections and a Jajpur ZP by-election. It gave a message that the Panchayat results of the BJP were not sustainable.
To build its popularity, the BJD has been inducting reputed personalities. The Hockey World Cup shall boost its image further.
The BJD is also planning not to give tickets to the unpopular leaders. The BJD might also take some anti-corruption action or change the style of party management to silence the critics.
The Congress, though did not act after its Panchayt poll failure, it got activated after its Bijepur by-election fiasco. It changed its State unit president in April and the new OPCC president Niranjan Patnaik has been striving relentlessly to unite his party and build confidence among caders.
The improvement in the BJD and the Congress checkmated the growth of the BJP for sometime in the State. However, the State BJP did not give up.
It continued to organize mass mobilization programmes, Union Government programmes and cadre induction programmes, some of which were attended by its national president and the Prime Minister. It is sure to step up such programmes ahead.
The BJP is following a combined approach consisting of the regional approach, the constituency approach and the macro- propaganda approach, to address its constituency level weaknesses.
While the BJD had recovered its image after the Bijepur by-election, its image was again affected when dissidence erupted in the party in the middle part of 2018. The BJD had no option but to drop its former MP Baijayant Panda and former Minister Damodar Rout for anti-party activities.
These dropped- out leaders have no potential to split the party or form a new viable alternative regional party, but they may run anti-BJD image damaging propaganda or promoting dissidence in the BJD.
This time the film stars cannot deliver result. The BJD might form a campaign team, consisting of new and old leaders, men and women, different caste group and religious group leaders along with the film stars.
The party might re-induct few dropped- out Biju-follower senior leaders to use them during central and field level campaigns to counter the political attack of the opposition as well as the dropped-outs. Presently, the BJD is not able to counter effectively the political attack of the Prime Minister or the BJP national President and the vocal dissidents.
The second challenge for the BJD relates to its poll management. The BJD might alter the central poll management team, its poll management style and strategy that failed partially in the 2017 Panchayat election.
As the State BJP is ready to fight the poll alone and the State Congress is growing in strength, the BJD shall work in a calculative manner to maintain its vote share minimum above 39 per cent level, its Assembly seats above 98 and the Parliament seats above 14 level, like the 2009.
As the BJP and the BJD are at the Center and at the State respectively, the Congress was theoretically in the advantageous position to come to power in the State in 2019. It has been out of the State power since 2000.
But the Congress acted late. Secondly, the State Congress is yet to hold mass mobilization programmes to raise its public demand.
The Congress seems to be working with Constituency approach. But unless the Congress gives a feeling that it shall form the State Government, its Constituency approach shall have limited success.
However, the performance of the BJP and the Congress shall be better than their 2014 performance.
Their achievement level depends on their national wave and the Constituency management loopholes of the BJD.
People still believe that the BJP’s 120 or the Congress’s 85 Assembly target are notrealistic.