The marginalisation of the AAP in the Delhi urban polls has added one more chapter to the narrative of gradual downfall of the regional parties in India.
The Bihar regional parties like the JDU and the RJD, survived the onslaught of the national party, BJP, in the last Assembly poll by forming a cartel. In Punjab, the regional party, SAD, was defeated by the national party Congress. The UP regional parties like the SP and the BSP, were devastated by the BJP in the recently concluded Assembly poll.
Alliance may help the regional parties to win the poll once but it will damage their respective identities in the long run. Some analysts have begun to predict that the dooms day for the regional parties has begun in India due to the re-emergence of the BJP.
National parties enjoy the capacity to gather the largest number of MPs to form the Union Government. Regional parties became powerful when the national parties failed to get majority in the lok Sabha poll and sought their help to form alliance-Governments at the Center at different points of time. But the 2014 lok Sabha poll made a significant departure from the cartel form of the Union Government to a single party majority rule. later, the BJP won the State Assembly polls to reach majority in the Rajya Sabha as well as to form the State Governments. The voters are seen shifting from the regional parties to the BJP.
The important contributing factor for the continuous electoral victory of the BJP is the larger image of the Prime Minister in comparison to the heads of the regional parties. Modi’s foreign tours not only created his international image for but also formed a larger pro-Modi domestic environment. His gift of cultural etiquette and ability to create dreams catch the imagination of the masses. Demonetisation projected him as a corruption crusader. Thus the BJP has been building its image slowly and communicating its vision of the “new India” aggressively, which keeps the party far ahead of the regional parties and the Congress.
While the BJP is developing, the regional parties are not seen undertaking reform to compete with it and charismatic Prime Minister Modi. On the other hand, they are following alliance strategy to come to power. The SP formed alliance with the Congress. The BSP suddenly opened the Assembly tickets to the Muslim community. The AAP could neither reform nor could fulfill the expectation that it created during the last Delhi Assembly elections. The JDU and the RJD did not change themselves but choose the tactical escape route of alliance. They failed to realize that Modi is working everyday to build the image of the BJP.
The BJP has now turned its focus on the States like West Bengal, Tripura, Odisha and Kerala. These States provide an opportunity for the BJP as the party is not in power.
The BJP was in power in Odisha for a decade as a second alliance partner. later, the BJD left its hands in 2009 Assembly poll. However, eight years down the line, as the BJP has emerged an acceptable party for the masses given the PRI poll success, it is natural for the BJP to dream big for the 2019 general election.
Has BJD supremo and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik reckoned the powerful BJP and the Modi IJ Does he find any challenge from the BJPIJ There are conflicting views on the threat-perception from the BJP. Some BJD leaders like Minister Damador Rout discard the significance of the 2017 rural poll performance of the BJP while MPs like Baijayanta Panda, Tathatgat Satapathy and Bhatruhari Mahatab sense the BJP to be a threat. Though the Panchayat Poll is different from the Assembly poll, can the successful entry of the BJP to the grassroots through the ZP system, be deniedIJ Some BJD leaders are complacent that the present strength of 117 Assembly seats of the BJD cannot be dismantled below 74 seats. Recall, what had happened to the Janata Dal in 1995 Assembly pollIJ Its seats fell from 123 to 46. Similarly, how could the BJP capture majority ZP seats in some districts without organizationIJ
BJD president Patnaik, however, has hinted at reforms in the party and in the Government. This is a great step as commitment to reform springs from the acknowledgement of failure. The BJD has also started the district review exercise to locate the gaps at the grassroots.
If the BJD chooses a tactical combat strategy for 2019 polls, it can adopt some image building measures like changing the Ministry, re-inducting some dropped-out leaders, lunching some new schemes, changing some bureaucrats and so on. It can either ensure the empowerment of the Congress in western Odisha to checkmate the growth of the BJP or plan for an alliance with the BJP. On the other hand, if the BJD plans to fight the election solo, it has to initiate reforms in the core areas of party and organization.
McKinsey 7-S model of organization visualizes an organization as a synergy of strategy, structure, systems, style, shared values, staff and skill moving towards the goal. Changes might be introduced at different degrees or in the desired component, based on the need.
The first area relates to the goal of the BJD. Why should the Odisha voters choose the BJD instead of a national party like the BJP or the CongressIJ Is it to fight against central-negligence or fulfill the dreams of Bijubabu or for a certain type of unique development and welfare of the OdiasIJ What is party’s vision document of OdishaIJ
The second aspect relates to the leadership style of the party and Government head. How systemic connectivity can be enhanced with the public, PRI representatives, MlAs, MPs, bureaucrats, media, civil society, and local business groups through meetings, grievance cells, e-mails, social media and tea-parties and so onIJ Whether Patnaik has to be more autocratic in certain areas and more democratic othersIJ What brand will suit his personalityIJ This is deeper reform than taking a selfie.
The third area is reform in systems and structures of the Government and the party to make them more responsive, corruption free and grass root oriented. Strategies must be reviewed. One area where the BJD is weak is its communication strategy. The BJP has powerful communication strategy. How the BJD and the Government can reform hereIJ Other strategies might be changed.
The fourth area is the personnel, their values and skills. What are the weakness in these areas in the Government and the partyIJ BJD’s core personnel are its MlAs. It is said that the new MlAs are weak in skills and values and scarce training has been given to them.