The voters of Uttar Pradesh have cruelly pushed the two giant regional parties like the SP and the BSP to the edge and decimated the Congress in the just concluded Assembly poll while giving the BJP a thumping majority. Encouraged, the BJP has turned its focus on Odisha which is to face the Assembly poll in 2019.
BJP national president Amit Shah is scheduled to visit Odisha next month to chalk out the party’s strategy in the light of the success of the party in the rural poll. Speculations are now rife over BJP capturing power in Odisha and Union Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan becoming the next Chief Minister.
looking at the national downward trend of the Congress, the increasing number of its leaders defecting to the BJP, the chronic and deadly internal squabbles in the State unit and the last PRI election performance, it appears impossible for the Congress to rise to the second position in 2019 poll. The magnitude of confidence loss of the voters on the Congress can neither be offset by the replacement of a powerful PCC president nor by any quick grassroots conflict resolution plan in a short span of two years. Besides, there will be pressure on its leaders to switch over to the BJP and the BJD for poll prospects. The disaster of the SP-Congress alliance in UP has now made a BJD-Congress alliance a remote possibility.
A close look at the ruling BJD tells us that the party is facing the twin disasters of anti-incumbency and dissidence. The devastation has been already seen during the last ZP election. Though the BJD has gained a few territories from its rivals in Nuapada, Kandhamal and Koraput districts, it has suffered heavy causality in its Assembly bases like Mayurbhanj , Kalahandi and other districts. At the top level, the dissidence has gone to its peak. Conflicts among the MPs, MlAs, a MP and his MlAs, between the MlA and lower caders and between old and young leaders are affecting the party unity. One Minister is lunching a blistering attack on the Government. One MP is showing open inclination to the BJP. There is no denying that the BJD is in an unprecedented chaos.
It is not that BJD supremo and CM Naveen Patnaik is silent. He has only changed the method of handling dissidence. Earlier, he was using stick and now he is using carrot. He has exhausted all appeasement measures like offering Rajya Sabha seats and rehabilitating the dissatisfied leaders in various ways. But instead of subsiding, the dissidence is spreading to the grassroots. It is heard that the Ministry shall be changed; the party shall be re-organised; the Biju-legacy leaders shall be called back and Naveen’s sister Gita Mehta shall be brought in to give a healing touch to the party. But these remedies are largely image-building measures than panacea against the complex dissidence phenomenon. If the BJD does not give Assembly tickets to bad performing MlAs, they may switch sides to the BJP. This is another handicap.
The unabated issues like the farmer’s deaths, fall in price of farm produce, paddy procurement, quality healthcare, ration supply and so on are providing strategic opportunities to the Opposition to unleash lethal tirades. It is not easy to bring radical reforms in the Government apparatus and bureaucracy. Image is another problem due to CBI work on chit fund scam.
In such a situation, there is a possibility of defection of some leaders from the BJD to the BJP camp as poll comes closer. The reverse-defection from the BJP shall not be possible as the poll-swing is in favor of the BJP. The situation indicates a fall of BJD from its 117 Assembly status.
There are 42 Assembly seats where the BJD has been sitting over decades. There are 48 seats from where the BJD won in 2009 and 2014 elections. Assuming these 42 seats as forts, half of the newly occupied 48 seats face the fear of moving away from the BJD to the BJP. Thus a bottom line in a fierce battle can be 60. Therefore, the BJD will try to help Congress secretly to improve its electoral performance to 30 seats at least to checkmate the BJP.
What is the scope for the BJPIJ The BJP is in a comfortable position by now as it has already made inroads into the media-inaccessible back-ward regions like Mayurbhanj, Kalahandi and Malkanagiri, besides opening a lotus corridor in the west Odisha region, covering the Parliamentary seats like Mayurbhanj, Bargarh, Sambalpur, Bolangir , Kalahandi and Nabarangpur. Though the BJP could not perform well in the coastal areas, it could take away sizeable votes in the absence of its coastal focus and machinery. As the coastal areas are media-accessible region, the national campaigns of PM shall have the change effect on the voters due to the simultaneous occurrence of the Parliament and the Odisha Assembly polls.
If the BJP works moderately, it can reach the level of a BJD-BJP alliance Government. But, there is a fear that the BJD can form alliance with Congress in a hung Assembly scenario. Thus the BJP will target to form the Government solo. To achieve the target, it may hit the Congress in various forms to keep its seats below 10. The second target of the BJP may be to diminish the BJD to 50 Assembly seats size by using various political and administrative instruments. On the other hand, the BJP will gain the voters sympathy from the Prime Minister’s work and the Union Government programmes.
The BJP’s performance in the western, northern, southern and coastal areas during the rural polls shows that the party is already getting public support. As Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan has brought success to the party in the ZP poll through his strategy, he will get further party support and public blessing to lead the State as CM. The free gas scheme, the opening of CNG filling stations and new petrol pumps, the Bhubaneswar- Cuttack gas line project and the petrochemical zone in Jagatsinghpur shall add to his popularity.