The El Nino factor will be the biggest contributor in further pushing up food inflation. In case there is a 10 per cent rainfall deficit in non-irrigated areas, besides the risk of inflation going will be much higher and it may even go beyond 15 per cent as had happened in 2010, apex industry body ASSOCHAM said on Wednesday.
"The most impacted States could be Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh that are significantly contributing to agricultural growth in India," said DS Rawat, national secretary general of The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) while interacting with the media on the sidelines of the chamber's conference on 'MP-MICE Tourism Destination.'
"While the national GDP (gross domestic product) may be impacted by about 1.75 per cent to two per cent, the States like Madhya Pradesh that are majorly dependent upon agricultural growth may feel an impact of between 2.5-3 per cent to their GSDP," said Rawat.
"We as a nation should not wait for the crisis to take place and then only activate the action plan but we should rather gear up with a crash programme and Government machinery together with co-ordination and co-operation between the Centre with support of other stakeholders to take timely measures to save water, farming as well as farmers from any agony," he added.
He added that while it was but natural that fruits and vegetables will witness a jump in prices but the edible oil and pulses will register shortfall in production and the country will have to import increased quantities at higher prices.
"Already 60 per cent edible oil requirement is being imported at the cost of nearly $9.5 billion which may go up to $14 billion, similarly, India is importing pulses to the extent of 7-8 million tons (MT) to meet its current requirement of 23 MT as against production of about 14 MT."
"The Centre as well as the State Governments should immediately abolish the APMC Act, declare crop insurance policy and ensure timely, adequate and affordable prices of essential commodities through public distribution system," said Rawat.