All parties need to jointly address the common security challenge, and frequent power shifts, like in the past, should not be repeated, opines Rajaram Panda
In a surprise announcement on September 25, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stunned the nation and declared to dissolve the House of Representatives (lower House) on September 28 and gambled on a snap election more than a year ahead of schedule. The reason for this move seems to be two-fold: Capitalise on a fractured and weak Opposition and taking advantage of the upswing in support ratings, and to overcome what he called “a national crisis” emanating from North Korean threat. Abe’s support ratings increased from 30 per cent in July to around 50 per cent in September and this was attractive for him to pursue his goal to revise the post-war pacifist Constitution and seek a larger military role for the country. Abe’s image as a strong leader received a boost because of his tough stance on North Korean issue. The election is scheduled to be held on October 22.
There were other compelling reasons as well behind Abe’s move. These are economic and security related. Also linked to these two are reforming the education sector and further pursuing his long-term agenda to achieve Constitutional amendment, focusing on revising Article 9. Plans are afoot also to reallocate the revenue to be earned from the hike in consumption tax in October 2019 to pay off Government debt and to provide free education to preschool children and lessen parents’ financial burden for university and other higher education expenses. Abe has earmarked the three-year period from fiscal 2018 as a period to “concentrate investment on the productivity revolution”.
In 2012, the then ruling Democratic Party of Japan (now the Democratic Party) reached an agreement with then Opposition parties, liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, to increase the consumption tax to 10 per cent in October 2019 from the current 8 per cent. The accord stipulated that 20 per cent of the increased revenues from the consumption tax hike will be used for social security services, and the rest for debt repayment and contribution to the state pension programme. The Abe Government plans to increase the proportion of revenue spent on child care and education, and delay a target of putting the budget in the black in the fiscal year ending March 2021. Abe has already asked his Cabinet to compile a 2 trillion yen ($17.8 billion) economic package by the year-end to focus on child care, education and encouraging corporate investment, while maintaining fiscal discipline. Besides securing the country’s security from external threats, addressing the declining birth rate, seeking ways to increase the fertility rate in the face of a shrinking labour force are other worries.
Though the Opposition is in disarray, Abe is not expected to be free from facing tough questions, especially over the cronyism scandals involving allegations of favouritism to a friend in a business deal (Morimoto Gakuen and Kotaro Kake scandals involving Kake Educational Institution), which Abe strongly denies, though he admitted he invited public distrust for some time. Experts are making comparisons with what Theresa May did in Britain some months ago by calling for elections before they were due, which resulted in a setback, and say Abe could face a similar situation.
Japan is unlikely to witness a similar experience, though some could see Abe’s move as opportunistic as his stance on the North Korean crisis is likely to lead the public to back him. A hawkish policy pursued by Abe will always be welcome in the light of North Korea firing two missiles over Japan’s airspace in a space of one month and North Korean threat to “sink” Japan. Therefore, the people are expected to strengthen Abe’s hands by returning him to power. Moreover, the Opposition is in utter disarray that Abe has little fear to lose, unless there is a major scandal suddenly surfacing, not seen in the horizon now.
At present, Abe’s lDP and its junior partner Komeito enjoy super majority of the two-thirds of the 475-member House and that is likely to remain unaltered. A decisive victory in the coming elections will be seen as an endorsement of his hardline stance to bolster Japan’s military in the wake of North Korean threat and a step further towards his Constitutional revision aims. like the US and South Korea, Japan too is worried of the North Korean threat. lashing out at Pyongyang over its repeated provocations, Abe remarked: “I want to hold an election in order to ask the public to make a decision on how the North Korean issue should be dealt with.” He has vowed to implement a strong foreign policy if he wins.
Some worries shall remain for Abe, however. It was in July 2017 that the lDP faced a major setback when it lost to the newly founded Tomin First no Kai (Tokyo Residents First) party led by charismatic Yuriko Koike in Tokyo Mayor’s election. Though Koike has now unveiled a new party Kibo no To (Party of Hope), it is highly unlikely that it would have a national impact. At the moment, there does not seem to be an alternative than to return Abe to office.
The disunity within the DP is also going to help Abe’s lDP. For example, Jin Matsubara of the DP and former National Public Safety Commission Chairman announced that he would join a party to be formed by a lower House member Masaru Wakasa, who is also close to Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, and therefore faces expulsion from the DP. Such dissension within the main Opposition party would work to Abe’s advantage. The House was dissolved on September 28, campaign starts on October 10 and elections will be held on October 22.
The Japanese media was divided on Abe’s sudden decision to call for elections. The Mainichi Shimbun found fault with Abe’s stress on prioritising allocation of revenue to be collected from consumption tax hike as well as on North Korea, observing that Abe stance is similar to that held by the Opposition parties and therefore nothing unique. The same newspaper also held the view that Abe’s pledge to make education free is a policy that the Opposition parties have already been advocating. The paper questioned that if Abe could not address the issue of falling birth rate and rapidly aging population during the past five years that it has been in power, its argument based on such issues to justify dissolution and seeking mandate is weak.The Asahi Shimbun also wrote in an editorial that use of funds from tax hike is a poor pretext by Abe for calling a snap election.
It is estimated that the increase in consumption tax would generate tax revenue of 5 trillion yen, which could have been set for paying back national debt. But Abe wants to earmark a portion of that for free education. Critics say such a move could delay efforts to rehabilitate the Government’s fiscal health. Calibrating the country’s fiscal policy could be a new challenge for Abe if he returns to power. The Opposition DP also sees red in Abe’s policy as he postponed the tax hike twice already in violation of the three-party accord reached in 2012 when then the DPJ was in power. The Opposition parties also question Abe’s decision to dissolve the lower House and call for a snap election to get a fresh mandate from the people to deal with the North Korean threat even when the House has still more than a year to complete its term. The Mainichi Shimbun finds Abe’s reasoning unconvincing. The Opposition charges that by calling an extraordinary session of the Diet on September 28 just to announce dissolution of the House and call a snap poll, Abe was trying to evade questions about his involvement in various scandals.
Notwithstanding the criticism made by the Opposition, it goes to Abe’s credit that he has been hugely instrumental in providing political stability for the country by massive victories in the past four national elections after the post-Koizumi Junichiro era saw a series of Prime Ministers and the country experienced worrying political instability. This phase gave rise to the talk of Japan having “revolving PMs”, as the Opposition could not build a strong political structure. Abe successfully ended this and ensured political stability, an essential element for good governance in a democracy.
During the past five years that Abe has been in office, the PMO has been an important centre of policy making and the Government has succeeded, to some extent, in resuscitating the economy through the Abenomics economic policy package. Some important Bills that the Government was able to pass included revising the law on Punishment of Organised Crimes and Control of Crime Proceeds, designed to penalise preparations for such crimes as terrorist attacks. While the Opposition is always a healthy element in a democracy, what Japan needs is a stable Government, which at the moment only Abe seems to be able to provide, especially when the security scenario in Japan’s neighbourhood is severe. All political parties need to jointly address this common security challenge. Frequent power shifts of the past should not be allowed to be repeated.
The writer is currently Indian Council for Cultural Relations India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan. The views expressed are his own and do not represent either of the ICCR or the Government of India.
rajaram.panda@gmail.com