In the face of serious political, economic, and security challenges, the Japanese Prime Minister is trying to restore balance and stability, says RAJARAM PANDA
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is facing serious political, economic and security challenges. At the political level, his popularity rate plummeted as his administration was hurt by a series of scandals, including alleged favouritism of a school operator headed by a close friend of the PM. His party, the liberal Democratic Party (lDP), had a historic defeat in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on July 2. His Defence Minister Tomomi Inada had to resign over a gaffe. These political challenges led Abe to undertake a reshuffle of his Cabinet to restore some of the political balance and stability.
At the economic level, the struggle to implement the three arrows of his much-touted Abenomics has fallen short of popular expectations, but continues. The biggest challenge is on the security front, especially coping with the ever-increasing threats from North Korea. His efforts to make constitutional amendment, especially Article 9, despite making incremental advance, remain unrealised. The only noticeable success seems to be on the foreign policy front wherein Abe has been able to sell his ideas and make friends. To address some of these challenges, Abe resorted to reshuffling his Cabinet. What does the reshuffle mean in the context of his Government and the nation’s futureIJ
As said, the reshuffle intended to regain public trust, which was eroding. Since its public approval ratings had plunged, the reshuffle intended to put priority on economic growth. The reshuffle was massive; Abe replaced most of his Cabinet ministers and inducted former veteran ministers to help stabilise his administration and regain public trust. But the key Cabinet members, such as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, the oldest at 76, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, 68, were retained so that the basic framework of the Government remained.
In order to strengthen the party, the lDP leadership also saw change with a new executive team. Toshihiro Nikai, 78, was reappointed as Secretary General, and Masahiko Komura, 75, as Vice-President. While Wataru Takeshita became the General Council chairman, Ryu Shionoya became chairman of the Election Strategy Committee. This team shall give direction to the ministers concerned on how to boost the economy’s virtuous cycle to end deflation.
Fumio Kishida, 60, who was Foreign Minister and was also holding the Defence Minister portfolio after Inada resigned, became the chairman of the Policy Research Council, one of the party’s top three posts after party president. The party’s Kishida faction also secured a strong presence within the Cabinet. In the pre-reshuffle Cabinet, only two members of the Kishida faction — Kishida himself as Foreign Minister and Kozo Yamamoto as Minister of State for Regional Revitalisation — held posts as Cabinet ministers. In the reshuffled Cabinet, four members of the faction were inducted: Yoshimasa Hayashi, Itsunori, Yoko Kamikawa and Masaji Matsuyama. Kishida is seen to be the potential successor to Abe as PM.
Abe felt cooperation of the Kishida faction was necessary in order to keep his administration afloat amid a plummeting Cabinet approval rating in the wake of scandals including allegations of favouritism involving Kake Educational Institution. While the Hosoda faction, from which Abe hails, carries its own weight, Abe’s intention to raise the profile of Kishida faction was not to depend on a single strong figure within the party so that the party’s foundation remains strong. Kishida was Foreign Minister in Abe Cabinet from the beginning when Abe came back to power in December 2012 and also orchestrated a May 2016 visit by the then US President Barack Obama to Hiroshima.
There are times when Kishida’s views are at odd with that of Abe and it is to be seen now how both work together in coordinating policies of the party. For example, Kishida does not want to rush the issue of revising war-renouncing Article 9 of the Constitution, a stance opposite to what Abe holds. Also, on Abe’s economic policy mix, Abenomics, Kishida has stated that it is “important to respond appropriately to the negative aspects, such as disparity resulting from economic policy today”.
While Taro Kono became the new Foreign Minister, Seiko Noda became the new Internal Affairs and Communications Minister. Itsunori Onodera became Japan’s new Defence Minister. He held this post earlier too. His challenge will be how to build the Defence Ministry, which was shaken by a cover-up of Ground Self-Defense Force reports on UN peacekeeping operations in South Sudan, which had led to Inada’s resignation.
Inada, perceived as a hawk like Abe, had been considered as a political protégé of Abe but came under question even earlier when she made a statement as Defence Minister during a campaign speech that appeared to promote the SDF for political purposes. For this, she faced a lot of criticism from the Opposition. With Inada’s departure, Abe’s Cabinet has now only two women, Seiko Noda, the Internal Affairs and Communication Minister and Yoko Kamikawa, the Justice Minister. This falls short of Abe’s promise to provide greater opportunities for women. Before the reshuffle, Abe’s Cabinet had three women ministers, with Inada as the third one. Noda, much younger to Abe at 56, was once hailed as Japan’s most likely first woman PM and once tried to challenge Abe for the party leadership.
The Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology Ministry went to Yoshimasa Hayashi. His primary focus is to reform the education ministry which was involved in the recent scandal and remove public suspicion, which contributed a great deal in the plummeting of popularity ratings of the Abe administration. The education ministry is still embroiled in controversy related to the possible favourable treatment toward Kake Educational Institution in its plan to open a veterinary medicine faculty. The institution is headed by a close friend of Abe’s.
While Toshimitsu Motegi became the new Economic Revitalisation Minister, Katsunobu Kato switched from minister in charge of promoting dynamic engagement of all citizens to health, labour and welfare minister. Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Hiroshige Seko, post-disaster reconstruction minister Masayoshi Yoshino and land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Minister Keiichi Ishii stayed on. While former Justice Minister Yoko Kamikawa returned to the post, Shunichi Suzuki was named minister in charge of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games. For the first time, six lawmakers became Cabinet ministers, including Ken Saito, who was given the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries ministry.
By bringing Noda into the Cabinet, Abe tried to demonstrate a more united party by including a wide range of voices. Along with Kishida, Taro Kono is seen as a potential party leader in the post-Abe era. Abe’s idea was to build a stable political foundation to push forward his policy decisions.
Prioritising the revival of the country’s economy is Abe’s primary goal. This was the third reshuffle that Abe undertook since he came to power. Five ministers continued to stay in their posts, including the most important portfolio held by Taro Aso with designation of Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister, and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, both tasked to preserve the framework of the administration. It remains to be seen if the new Cabinet can turn the situation around and regain the trust of the people for the Government. Abe expects the “results-oriented Cabinet comprising capable ministers” can help accelerate the implementation of his Abenomics. His goal of “ending deflation” is a job half done; the economy is growing but not as desired. His focus aims to bolster growth strategies by encouraging corporates to perform better so that wages are increased and domestic demands are stimulated.
The task is not easy, given the proclivity of the Japanese people for saving. The issue gets complicated further as more and more aged people worry about social security system and prepare themselves accordingly for post-retirement life. Even those in the productive segment in the labour force worry about child rearing and increasing cost of education, which indirectly also contributes to couples opting to have fewer children or not to have at all, leading to demographic challenges.
On the foreign policy front, the challenges are equally daunting. North Korea’s nuclear and missile development is growing, posing a threat to the nation’s security. Strengthening alliance relationship with the US has become all the more necessary. China’s assertive policy and expanding military influence creates discomfort. South Korean President Mon Jae-in’s intentions to reopen the 2015 agreement on the comfort women issue leaves its impact on bilateral ties. The anti-Japanese sentiment in South Korea over this historical issue does not serve either’s interest at a time when greater threat to both from North Korea continues. The new Foreign Minister Taro Kono’s diplomatic skills remain untested. Being the son of a dovish former foreign minister known for issuing a 1993 apology as chief cabinet secretary over Japan’s use of comfort women — a euphemism for sex slavery — in World War II, this background could haunt him in discharging his foreign policy duties. An advocate of slashing aid to development countries, Kono could displease many friends rather than making new ones. Itsunori Onodera’s return to the Defence Ministry is likely to be equally challenging as his immediate task would be to rebuild the ministry smeared by scandals during Inada’s tenure.
The new party leadership needs to work in tandem with various ministries to strengthen Abe’s hands to get effective results for the country’s future.
Dr Rajaram Panda is currently the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University in Japan. The views expressed are his own and do not represent those of either the ICCR or the Government of India e-mail: rajaram.panda@gmail.com