BJP has begun setting the tone for 2024 elections, ensuring that emotional issues, not economy, will be in limelight
Prime Minister Narendra Modi helped the Bharatiya Janata Party with a record victory of 156 seats in Gujarat. Now it may be an intense Hindu makeover surpassing the economy to continue the spree till 2024 Lok Sabha poll
The party prefers to go beyond economics and politics. It is setting the agenda for an open debate before the poll process begins in February 2023. The BJP starts methodically to pave the pitch for the national elections to be preceded by elections to nine state assemblies and four with the Lok Sabha.
The economic rhetoric of a $5-trillion economy would remain there as it was also in Gujarat for a state GDP of one trillion, though it could not create the mood that the party may have liked. That led its leaders to walk the extra – 50 km and 10 km patch for the astounding victory. The magic attraction of Modi finally did the trick as also the party's capability to muster over 16 lakh people at the polling stations in a jiffy in the second phase on December 5. The party’s financial and manpower strength virtually wiped out the opposition parties, particularly Congress and the AAP.
The 2024 elections once again may not be contested on economic blueprints. India may be doing better with over six per cent growth, but it may not be enough to lure voters.
The BJP proceeds with the cafeteria approach of campaigning. It would be different in each of the nine states in 2023 in North East – Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Tripura; South – Karnataka, Telangana; centre - Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and west – Rajasthan.
Andhra, Arunachal, Odisha and Sikkim are likely to go to polls with the Lok Sabha elections in April 2024.
The controversies, the BJP poll organisers know, are vote catchers. It may again gamble on polarisation, population or the divide with unique packs in each state.
It has almost now centred on the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) to create a wave all over the country. The discussion on the issue of personal laws touches almost all Indians. A small instance of larger import was witnessed in the Rajya Sabha on Friday, December 9, with introduction of a private member’s Bill by BJP MP, Kirodi Lal Meena. He demanded a panel to prepare and implement the UCC. It divides the house. Expectedly the Congress, TMC, DMK, CPI-M, CPI, IUML, MDMK, Samajwadi Party and RJD lodged strong protests amid uproar.
Chairman Jagdeep Dhankar called for division and the motion was cleared with 63 votes in favour and 23 against.
The UCC would be garnished with the population control policy for sharpening the campaign. If the BJP concentrates on scrapping the junking of ten-year-new cars, started by UPA-Congress, in all the states, it would touch the hearts of several crore people and families. It can be a game changer as Switzerland has taken the first step to do away with improper tech electricity guzzler electric vehicles -EV. Seething anger against the forced junking of cars and tractors is witnessed among kisans of UP, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Odisha, West Bengal, Punjab and several other states.
Once again there may be freebies or not, the free food dole is likely to get an extension till the Lok Sabha polls along with many other programmes for the tribals, and disadvantaged groups. The programme is likely to be extended to May 2024, in phases.
The minorities are to be given special favour in allotments of PM Avas Yojana houses, jobs in EWS quota, allocations to religious schools, madrasas and some other programmes. It is interesting to note that backward minority communities are gradually being attracted to the Hindu party. The subtle campaigning among minority groups of different religions by RSS leader Indresh Kumar has caught the fancy.
The minority denominated constituencies in the North East, Telangana, Andhra and Karnataka would be approached by party cadres for the next one year continuously to lure them to vote for the BJP. It is in touch with different churches. Various programmes tailored for each of the states are aimed at swinging the mood for the saffron party. The approach, packaging and methods are special to each state concentrating on welfare and popular imaging.
The local religious icons too would be projected in many ways. In Arunachal, Donyi-Polo, the Sun-Moon Temple, is getting keen attention. Modi opened the Donyi-Polo airport sometime back. Nagaland is varied and so are other states in the region. An RSS leader says that the Sangh had been catering to NE tribals groups for decades.
The novel campaign plank has been designed to surpass the economic issues and capture the electorate's imagination to win over the elections with a mix of emotions, connect and divide to perpetuate its rule till 2047 or centenary of Independence.
(The author is a member of advisory committee of Ministry of Shipping)