At the diplomatic level, Taiwan works as a major bargaining chip for the US to deal with an increasingly aggressive China
Just days before the US Congress certified President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lifted the long-standing restrictions on dealing with Taiwan. These “self-imposed restrictions”, which were introduced decades ago to appease the mainland Chinese Government were declared “null and void” by Pompeo on January 9.
This allows US officials to engage with their Taiwanese counterparts on the same footing with which they deal with functionaries of other countries.
While the latest development has elevated US-Taiwan relations to a new height, it is still to be seen whether Biden follows the trend or reverses the trajectory of bilateral engagement that has been achieved under the Donald Trump era.
Some experts, diplomats and commoners are speculative that the Biden Administration could back-pedal US-Taiwan relations and instead favour China. Their apprehensions are not without a reason, as they cite a statement made by Biden in the US Senate in 2001 when he said that “Washington is not willing to go to war over Taiwan’s unilateral declaration of independence.”
However, it would be unfair to form an opinion about his foreign policies just based on some isolated statement. It is pertinent to recall that Biden had supported the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979. Even in 2020 he was among the first global leaders to congratulate Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on her re-election and said: “You are stronger because of your free and open society. The United States should continue strengthening our ties with Taiwan and other like-minded democracies.” Biden has also supported US legislations providing arms and defence equipment to Taiwan under the outgoing President Donald Trump’s Administration.
We should also keep it in mind that Biden had used strong words against China during his election campaign. He termed the communist nation a “thug” and even accused Trump of being too soft on China. Further, in an article published in a journal, Biden said: “We’re a Pacific power, and we’ll stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values in the Asia-Pacific region,” and “that includes deepening our ties with Taiwan.” This, in turn, makes it aptly clear that Biden is fully conscious of the changing geostrategic, security and economic environment largely due to China’s expansionist tendency.
Furthermore, some appointments made by Biden should indeed be viewed as a good signal for the East Asian nation. For instance, Antony Blinken, the Secretary of State-designate, has held talks with Taiwanese diplomats and in a tweet, Blinken mentioned that “stronger economic relations between the US and Taiwan will support our shared democratic values and our common commitment to regional peace and stability.”
At the same time, the existence of Taiwan as an independent and vibrant democracy is also in the interest of the US for various reasons. First, Taiwan’s geo-strategic location in the South China Sea (SCS) prevents Beijing from dominating sea trade routes. China controlling Taiwan would embolden Beijing to establish its dominance over the SCS and eventually it would pose a serious threat to East, Southeast Asia and the US. China can further assert its territorial claim more aggressively against the Philippines, Vietnam and some other countries in the region.
Second, Taiwan is one of the leading export-based economies in the world. Taiwan succumbing to China would only accentuate Beijing’s imperialist tendency. Third, at the diplomatic level, Taiwan works as a major bargaining chip for the US to deal with China. Fourth, while the recent attack on the Capitol Hill in Washington has bemused several countries across the world, the disappearance of Taiwan as an independent country would prove to be a big blow to the idea of democracy.
Taiwan can contribute significantly towards promoting the emergence of a strong supply chain free from the clutches of China. While Taiwan runs leadership training courses for the officials of the Pacific islands, its timely medical support to the rest of the world and its success in controlling the spread of COVID-19 have won the hearts of the international community. But Taiwan could have certainly helped immensely had it been a member of the World Health Organisation.
The global perception about China has changed significantly in recent years as Beijing has become more repressive internally and aggressive internationally. China’s repressive measures against peaceful protestors in Hong Kong and its attempt to cover up the outbreak of the contagion have finally ended the delusions about China’s peaceful rise. It is all because of these factors that there exists a strong bipartisan understanding among US leaders about strengthening ties with Taiwan.
Now, the time has come when not only the independent existence of Taiwan should be a global concern, but efforts should also be undertaken to enable it to contribute to world affairs in an effective manner. For its pursuance, the US should take initiatives to sign the Free Trade Agreement with Taiwan, which in turn would propel other countries to institutionalise their economic ties with it. The process will eventually not only reduce Taiwan’s economic dependence on China, it would also integrate Taiwan into the regional and global economic groups.
The US should also take initiatives to include Taiwan into the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). Since the East Asian country has fostered a strong relationship with India, Japan has already expressed its concern for the independence of Taiwan and Australia is facing an assertive China, Washington can explore the means of providing a role to Taiwan in this QUAD grouping.
While it becomes logical for the Biden Administration to sustain the momentum of the bilateral relationship, only time will tell if this transition leads to anticipated transformation.
(Singh is Professor at Delhi University while Kumar is former fellow at National Chengchi University, Taipei.)