In good news for Indian farmers and the Union Government on the agricultural front and, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted an above-normal rainfall for India during the coming June-September monsoon season, which quantitatively could be around 105 per cent of the long period average (LPA). This prediction is vital for India’s agriculture, which supports a significant portion of the population and contributes substantially to the Gross Domestic Product of the country.

Ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions — typically linked to reduced rainfall — during the entire season, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told a press conference, “India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent of the long-period average of 87cm.”

El Nino conditions in the subcontinent are unlikely to develop this time,” he added. This mirrors a consensus that most weathermen have on the Indian monsoon this year. Last week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet also said that cumulative all-India southwest monsoon this year could be ‘normal’ at 103 per cent of the LPA.  Rainfall between 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal. The IMD prediction comes even as parts of the country are battling extreme heat. A significantly high number of heatwave days are expected in April-June period. This could strain power grids due to increased power demand and also result in water

shortage. A forecast of normal rainfall during the monsoon comes as a huge relief to Indian farmers, with the agricultural sector supporting around 42.3 per cent of the Indian population and contributing 18.2 per cent to India’s GDP.

Normal rains will also help bring down food prices, keep inflation at Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) comfort level, and allow the world’s biggest rice exporter to ship out more of the staple food. A good, well-distributed rainfall will go a long way in boosting Kharif production and provide necessary residual soil moisture for the following Rabi harvest.

As per the Ministry of Agriculture, 52 per cent of the net cultivated area in India relies on primary rain-bearing system.

It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water supply, apart from power generation across the country.  However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of rain-bearing system.

The monsoon usually arrives in the Indian subcontinent from the southern tip in Kerala around June 1 and retreats in mid-September. The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

An El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that has turned neutral is expected to remain so by the time the monsoon season kicks in in June. A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere from January to March will altogether combine to give India a good monsoon, the IMD said.

The southwest monsoon had closed the 2024 season with 8 per cent surplus rains, the best in the past three years (since 2020). Cumulatively, the national all-India rainfall during June-September months last year was estimated at 935 mm, which was 8 per cent more than a normal of 870 millimetres.