The political situation in Nepal is in flux. King Gyanendra, deposed in 2008, is rallying supporters to reclaim the throne, while Nepal’s Left-led republicans fight to uphold the 2015 secular, democratic Constitution

I am in Tikapur, Kailali District,  on the India-Nepal border, having been in Nepal since March 11, when I arrived in Kathmandu. I have travelled to Pokhara, Nepalganj, Salyan, Rolpa and Ghorai — virtually all of central and far Western Nepal, studying the Movement for the Restoration of Monarchy (MRM).

The battle between David and Goliath has begun. No one is quite sure who is David and who is  Goliath, though one thing is clear: the contest will not end anytime soon.

King Gyanendra Shah sounded the clarion call on February 19 (Democracy Day), urging his ‘praja’ to help him return to the throne, then on  March 9 made the triumphant return from temple tour to Kathmandu, followed by March 19’s symbolic demonstration by his supporters outside Narayanhiti Durbar Kathmandu, these signals of an impending skirmish were available. The timing for the assault was provided by Republican Left parties which had earlier announced March 28 for a protest meeting against MRM. The royalists decided to checkmate the republicans.

Gyanendra feels robbed of his crown and entitlements after he was dethroned in 2008 after the declaration (sanctified by the 2015 constitution) by the Maoist Government led by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda that Nepal was a secular, democratic and inclusive republic, the culmination of the 10-year long people’s war.

This was preceded by the 12-point Delhi Agreement at Shangrila Hotel in 2005 between seven political parties and Maoists that was followed by the People’s third Andolan in 2006 when India, the principal mediator, could not save for Gyanendra even constitutional monarchy.

Had Gyanendra not executed the Palace coup by dismissing Prime  Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba in 2005 and deleting democracy (as demonstrated on his laptop to KV Rajan, former ambassador to Nepal), he might have saved the Shah dynasty.

He is a man in a hurry. GP Koirala was considering offering ‘baby monarchy’ which has a precedent in Nepal in which Gyanendra himself fulfilled that role. Even the Maoists at one stage were flexible and willing to consider a ‘genuine’ constitutional monarchy.

But the 1990 Constitution authorised constitutional monarchy in which King Birendra held de facto, even de jure powers including and especially control of the Royal Nepal Army had set a dangerous precedent. The Maoists’ key demand was civilian political control of RNA following the Holleri horror.

On March 28, two protest rallies were held in Kathmandu in separate locations allotted by the police — the royalists at Tinkune and the republicans at Bhrikuti Mandap. Unfortunately for the royalists, Gyanendra divided his forces inadvertently or advertently, creating a split within the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). The 87-year-old Navraj Subedi, the new political driver of MRM, accompanied by Durga Parsai a prominent royalist and bete noire of the establishment, especially Prime Minister KP Oli, met Gyanendra on March 28 for blessings before the battle.

Parsai was appointed commander of the rally. RPP leaders Rajindra Lingden, Kamal Thapa and Pashupati Rana had distanced themselves from the royalist protest meeting that was designed to be provocative.

Parsai-led hawks intended to catalyse MRM and challenged the police which according to royalists, fired teargas shells to disperse their rally. Royalist’s targets were all Left party offices.

They set ablaze the Unified Socialists (former PM Madhav Nepal) office and parts of the Maoists office too.

Parsai was captured on camera driving his car like a man possessed breaking police barricades. Mayhem followed — burning Government property, cars, Avenue Television, looting of Bhat Bhateni, and the departmental store (Nepal’s Marks and Spencer). The Avenue TV journalist Suresh Rajak could not be extricated from the inferno.

Altogether, two persons were killed and hundreds injured including police personnel. Parsai was declared the designated leader of organised violence.

The Army was called out. Not since the 2005 Palace coup had the Nepal Army taken to the streets ostensibly to protect Kathmandu airport which was temporarily shut down. An emergency cabinet meeting was held where Home Minister Ram Lekhak was asked to investigate the skirmish between royalists and police and fix responsibility for the violence. Meanwhile, the Left Front rally was held peacefully.

Prachanda condemned the violence perpetrated by the royalists, attributing it to the misgovernance of the Oli-led alliance. He said he sometimes wondered whether Oli was sympathetic to Gyanendra and the monarchy.

According to official sources, some 35,000 people attended the peaceful republican rally whereas four to 5000 royalists went on a rampage. While Parsai is on the run (not for the first time), Subedi was put under house arrest and RPP leaders Dawal Shamsher Rana and Rabindra Misra (former BBC Nepali chief) were taken into custody. Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah has slammed a penalty of NPR seven lakh against Gyanendra for damages caused to municipal property.

In Parliament, on March 29, the ruling coalition demanded the arrest of Gyanendra and republican parliamentarians also called for his arrest or house confinement. Some even demanded the revocation of his passport and the withdrawal of his privileges.

On March 31, Oli warned Gyanendra of severe action blaming him for violence. Security provided to Gyanendra’s Nirmal Niwas by Armed Police Force was reduced from 25 personnel to 16 soldiers. 

Neither India nor China has issued any official statement though Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar had stated in response to a question during the Raisina Dialogue in Delhi (March 17 to 19) that India had no links with MRM.

Nepal’s political analyst, Kalyan Sharma, has said there is no evidence of either India or China’s interference at the micro level in domestic affairs. Gyanendra’s precipitate action plan resulting in a breach of law and order and violence including looting has harmed his MRM.

While he had provided space and a platform for people to express their discontentment over political misrule and unmet expectations, the opposite has happened among sections of society.  According to a Himalayan poll in 2006, 48 per cent of people had opted for republicans and 42 per cent for royalists.

A new poll is needed. Gyanendra has lost the momentum for prospects for any constitutional and revolutionary change.

Temple touring alone will not help to create the surge that Gyanendra seeks.

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. Views expressed are personal)