As the nation prepares for counting of votes in the Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, attention is focused on over 30 of the 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh where the victory margins are expected to be narrow, ranging between 1 per cent and 10 per cent.

“With the decrease in polling percentage in the 2024 elections, the margin of victory in many constituencies will be crucial. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, many candidates won by margins of 1.5 lakh to 2.5 lakh votes, but this is likely to be rare this time, with expected victory margins between 25,000 and 50,000 votes,” said senior journalist Manoj Bhadra.

Bhadra’s point is underscored by the 2019 elections in which 32 seats had victory margins of less than 10 per cent. In the Machhlishahr Lok Sabha constituency, Bharatiya Janata Party candidate BP Saroj had won by just 181 votes.

Out of these 32 seats, the BJP won 23 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) had won one. Other tight races included Meerut and Muzaffarnagar, where BJP candidates won by 4,729 and 6,526 votes, respectively.

The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, which were in alliance in 2019 elections, won two and four seats, respectively.

Data from the Election Commission of India’s 2019 polls show that nine constituencies had razor-thin victory margins of 2 per cent or less. These included Machhlishahr, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Kannauj, Chandauli, Sultanpur, Ballia, Budaun and Saharanpur. The BJP won eight of these, while the BSP claimed two.

Additionally, six more seats had winning margins between 2 per cent and 5 per cent, all won by the BJP. These close contests were in Baghpat, Firozabad, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Kaushambi and Bhadohi.

Kannauj was particularly notable for its narrow margin in both 2014 and 2019 general elections, switching from SP to BJP between these polls. In 2019, Subroto Pathak of the BJP defeated Dimple Yadav of the SP by a margin of just 12,353 votes.

Union minister Mahendra Nath Pandey narrowly won the Chandauli seat by 13,959 votes against SP’s Sanjay Singh Chauhan and is now aiming for a third consecutive term. Similarly, the Sultanpur seat was fiercely contested, with BJP’s Maneka Gandhi winning by 14,526 votes. Maneka is again in the fray from this constituency.

In Budaun, traditionally an SP stronghold, the BJP won by 18,454 votes, defeating SP’s Dharmendra Yadav. This year, SP’s Aditya Yadav is striving to reclaim the seat and Dharmendra Yadav is contesting from Azamgarh.

“In 2019, the BJP won the Firozabad seat by defeating SP’s Akshay Yadav by a margin of 28,783 votes. This time, the equation is different. Last time, Shivpal Singh Yadav was a spoiler as he contested as an independent. This year, Shivpal is back with the SP, aiming to secure a win for his nephew,” said political analyst Rajendra Kumar.

Kaushambi and Basti also saw tight races in both election years, with the BJP emerging victorious against the SP in 2014 and 2019. In Basti, the BJP faced the SP in 2014 and the BSP in 2019.

The BSP won Shravasti and Saharanpur Lok Sabha seats by slim margins of 5,320 and 22,417 votes, respectively.

Additionally, 16 seats in UP were won by margins between 5 per cent and 10 per cent. The BJP secured nine of these seats, including Banda, Amethi, Faizabad, Etawah, Mohanlalganj, Kairana, Sitapur, Barabanki and Misrikh.

Smriti Irani defeated Congress candidate Rahul Gandhi in Amethi by 55,120 votes, and the BJP’s win in Faizabad, despite its Hindutva significance, was by only 65,477 votes. Apna Dal (S) won Robertsganj with a 54,336 vote margin.

The BSP and SP also had significant wins in this margin category in Amroha, Bijnor, Jaunpur, Ambedkar Nagar (BSP), and Moradabad and Mainpuri (SP).

“The BJP may benefit from its alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal as in 2019 RLD was with the SP-BSP alliance.

BJP’s alliances with Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party and NISHAD Party is likely to benefit the ruling party. But, will it increase the winning margin, only time will tell,” Kumar said. 

Tight contests expected in

over 30 LS seats in UP

PNS | Lucknow

As the nation prepares for counting of votes in the Lok Sabha elections on Tuesday, attention is focused on over 30 of the 80 parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh where the victory margins are expected to be narrow, ranging between 1 per cent and 10 per cent.

“With the decrease in polling percentage in the 2024 elections, the margin of victory in many constituencies will be crucial. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, many candidates won by margins of 1.5 lakh to 2.5 lakh votes, but this is likely to be rare this time, with expected victory margins between 25,000 and 50,000 votes,” said senior journalist Manoj Bhadra.

Bhadra’s point is underscored by the 2019 elections in which 32 seats had victory margins of less than 10 per cent. In the Machhlishahr Lok Sabha constituency, Bharatiya Janata Party candidate BP Saroj had won by just 181 votes.

Out of these 32 seats, the BJP won 23 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (Sonelal) had won one. Other tight races included Meerut and Muzaffarnagar, where BJP candidates won by 4,729 and 6,526 votes, respectively.

The Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, which were in alliance in 2019 elections, won two and four seats, respectively.

Data from the Election Commission of India’s 2019 polls show that nine constituencies had razor-thin victory margins of 2 per cent or less. These included Machhlishahr, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Kannauj, Chandauli, Sultanpur, Ballia, Budaun and Saharanpur. The BJP won eight of these, while the BSP claimed two.

Additionally, six more seats had winning margins between 2 per cent and 5 per cent, all won by the BJP. These close contests were in Baghpat, Firozabad, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Kaushambi and Bhadohi.

Kannauj was particularly notable for its narrow margin in both 2014 and 2019 general elections, switching from SP to BJP between these polls. In 2019, Subroto Pathak of the BJP defeated Dimple Yadav of the SP by a margin of just 12,353 votes.

Union minister Mahendra Nath Pandey narrowly won the Chandauli seat by 13,959 votes against SP’s Sanjay Singh Chauhan and is now aiming for a third consecutive term. Similarly, the Sultanpur seat was fiercely contested, with BJP’s Maneka Gandhi winning by 14,526 votes. Maneka is again in the fray from this constituency.

In Budaun, traditionally an SP stronghold, the BJP won by 18,454 votes, defeating SP’s Dharmendra Yadav. This year, SP’s Aditya Yadav is striving to reclaim the seat and Dharmendra Yadav is contesting from Azamgarh.

“In 2019, the BJP won the Firozabad seat by defeating SP’s Akshay Yadav by a margin of 28,783 votes. This time, the equation is different. Last time, Shivpal Singh Yadav was a spoiler as he contested as an independent. This year, Shivpal is back with the SP, aiming to secure a win for his nephew,” said political analyst Rajendra Kumar.

Kaushambi and Basti also saw tight races in both election years, with the BJP emerging victorious against the SP in 2014 and 2019. In Basti, the BJP faced the SP in 2014 and the BSP in 2019.

The BSP won Shravasti and Saharanpur Lok Sabha seats by slim margins of 5,320 and 22,417 votes, respectively.

Additionally, 16 seats in UP were won by margins between 5 per cent and 10 per cent. The BJP secured nine of these seats, including Banda, Amethi, Faizabad, Etawah, Mohanlalganj, Kairana, Sitapur, Barabanki and Misrikh.

Smriti Irani defeated Congress candidate Rahul Gandhi in Amethi by 55,120 votes, and the BJP’s win in Faizabad, despite its Hindutva significance, was by only 65,477 votes. Apna Dal (S) won Robertsganj with a 54,336 vote margin.

The BSP and SP also had significant wins in this margin category in Amroha, Bijnor, Jaunpur, Ambedkar Nagar (BSP), and Moradabad and Mainpuri (SP).

“The BJP may benefit from its alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal as in 2019 RLD was with the SP-BSP alliance.

BJP’s alliances with Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party and NISHAD Party is likely to benefit the ruling party. But, will it increase the winning margin, only time will tell,” Kumar said.