The current visit of Nancy Pelosi to Dharamshala, wherefrom the Tibetan government-in-exile has been working since 1959 has brought back the Tibetan question on the centre stage of international politics. Tibet like Taiwan is a flash point of international dispute in this part of the world involving China. The difference between the two is that Taiwan is a standalone case and it's supporters do not have a direct contact with the borders of either Taiwan or China. In the case of Tibet, a powerful country like India has a border contact with it. The Chinese occupation of Tibet has brought border proximity of India with China. It is a historical fact that Tibet was a buffer state between India and China and it was culturally close to India because of prevalence of Buddhism there.
China is not a neighbour of India because of geographical compulsion, our border touches China because of our political folly committed in 1949 when we accepted the Chinese claim over Tibet and thereafter the One China Policy. The USA did not realise the gravity of the development then or did not interfere in the matter possibly because of the emergence of the communist USSR as a superpower in the bipolar world order that emerged after the second world war. Our leader Nehruji, too, had a fascination for socialism and a natural soft corner for the USSR and China which led to this political misjudgement.
The USA was not fully secure and self-confident till 1970 as it always felt threatened by the USSR. The US led West decided to use China as a bulwark against the USSR and it granted China a permanent seat at the UN Security Council. China became a blue eyed boy of the West and the western technology and market were transferred to China to make it powerful. China became the factory of the world as well as a source of serious threat to the global hegemony of the West. The post-corona world saw a paradigm shift in the global world order. China went down and so did the US led West. Russia survived this pandemic largely successfully. India silently emerged as a new power in this period. It handled corona almost successfully, made vaccines and saved its economy.
All these developments had a deep and profound impact on theTibetan issue. I personally believe that Nehruji had a realization that accepting the Chinese claim over Tibet was a mistake. That's why he allowed His Highness Dalai Lama and his supporters to come to India. He granted them not only political refuge but also allowed them to form a Tibetan government in exile and thereby keeping the embers alive to be stoked and flared up as and when the situation became favorable. That moment of history has arrived.
The visit of Nancy Pelosi is unprecedented and it has taken China and the world by surprise. This is simply a matter of speculation and diplomatic judgment as to what transpired backstage between India and the US that led to this development. It is also certain that China has been caught off guard. As the two great democracies of the world, it is our duty to take up the cause of Tibet. The Tibetans are entitled to return to their homeland and lead a life of dignity and grace under their own value system and governance. A bully like China has to be tamed. Dalai Lama is demanding an autonomous status within China right now, but it would convert into the demand for full independence from China the moment they are convinced that the US and India would go whole hog for the Tibetan cause. The growing Sino-Russian proximity in the wake of Russia Ukraine Conflict defeating the American sanctions against Russia has brought about a turnaround in the US policy vis-a-vis Tibet. America has been emboldened by the Indian response to China in the Galvan Valley in 2020 and by the incidents that followed thereafter. America is alo determined to bring India to its side to take on China and weaken it. India has lonely taken up the cause of Tibet so far inviting Chinese anger. Now it has got the open support of America and the Tibetan issue should be solved with firmness. There would be no real fight on the ground but the diplomatic chessboard would be abuzz with activity giving India some room to breathe some fresh air in the eastern border. China would be on the backfoot. Tibet would be on the centre stage. The test of the Indian diplomacy lies on our ability to maximize our advantage while taking up the cause of Tibet and restricting the US influence to grow to a certain limit in the area.
The writer is a noted academician and political commentator. Views expressed in the article are personal.
