Bypolls to Punjab’s four key assembly segments — Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, Chabbewal (SC), and Barnala — will take place on Wednesday. With the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) seeking redemption after its poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress is aiming to continue its momentum after winning seven seats in parliamentary polls earlier this year. Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), despite its Lok Sabha setback, is determined to make a strong showing in these rural constituencies, gaining from SAD’s absence.
The bypolls have been triggered by the election of sitting MLAs to the Lok Sabha, and the stakes are high for all parties. Gidderbaha, Dera Baba Nanak, and Chabbewal were previously held by Congress, while Barnala was with AAP. A total of 45 candidates, including three women, are contesting, with 6.96 lakh eligible voters across 831 polling stations. Extensive security arrangements have been made, with over 6,400 Punjab Police personnel and 17 companies of Central Armed Police Forces deployed.
These bypolls are being viewed as a crucial test for Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who is hoping to regain his party's lost ground. For Congress, the battle is personal, with the wives of two MPs contesting in Gidderbaha and Dera Baba Nanak. The BJP, looking to capitalize on its increased vote share in 2024 Lok Sabha polls, aims for a victory in these rural constituencies, making this election a key battleground for all parties.
Gidderbaha: MP’s Wife Facing 5-Time MLA, Former Akali
As the Gidderbaha assembly constituency braces for its crucial by-election on Wednesday, political fervour has reached a crescendo. The seat, often dubbed the “hotspot”, is witnessing an electrifying triangular contest between Congress, BJP, and AAP.
At the forefront is Congress candidate Amrita Warring, wife of state party president and Ludhiana MP Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, who vacated the seat after his elected in the Parliament. Warring, a three-time MLA from the seat, managed to retain it in 2022 AAP wave with a slim margin of 1,349 votes. Amrita is banking on Warring family's deep-rooted local influence and is positioning herself as “Gidderbaha’s daughter” through her “Saadi Dhi-Saada Maan” campaign.
Opposing her is BJP candidate Manpreet Badal, a seasoned political heavyweight. A five-time MLA and two-time Finance Minister, Manpreet represents the legacy of the influential Badal family and his deep connection with the constituency having served as its MLA twice. Returning to this segment after a gap of 12 years, Manpreet is emphasizing his ability to attract development funds and is evoking nostalgia for his tenure when the region saw significant progress.
The third contender is AAP’s Hardeep Singh “Dimpy” Dhillon. A former Akali leader and Sukhbir Badal’s close aide, Dimpy lost twice here but carried the support of a government in power. He is pitching himself as the “local candidate”, contrasting himself against the “outsiders” Amrita and Manpreet.
Historically, Gidderbaha has been a bastion of both Akalis and Congress, with the former dominating nine times and the latter five. However, Akali Dal’s decision not to field a candidate this time has turned their traditional vote bank into a decisive swing factor. Both Manpreet and Dimpy are vying for this crucial support. Shiromani Akali Dal (Amritsar) has also fielded Sukhraj Singh, son of one of the 2015 Behbal Kalan police firing victims.
Adding another layer of complexity is the Dera Sacha Sauda influence, with approximately 10,000 votes under its sway. The alignment of these votes could tilt the scales significantly.
The electorate of Gidderbaha has voiced concerns over development stagnation. Key issues include the absence of a flyover at a critical railway crossing, waterlogging, poor drainage, unemployment, and the rampant drug menace. While Warring’s tenure faced criticism for unmet promises, voters also recall Manpreet Badal’s contributions to local agriculture and Dimpy Dhillon’s grassroots initiatives.
Political analysts predicted a close contest between Congress and AAP, with BJP trailing due to limited organizational strength in the constituency. However, Manpreet’s personal charisma and legacy might surprise many.
With over 1.66 lakhs registered voters, Gidderbaha is poised for a nail-biting finish. The outcome will not only shape the political future of its candidates but also resonate across Punjab’s evolving political landscape.
Barnala: A Tightrope
The political battlefield of Barnala, in Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s home district Sangrur, is poised for a gripping triangular contest. This high-stakes election could reshape the political dynamics of the region, which has been a stronghold of the ruling AAP for the past decade. However, internal strife, changing voter priorities, and the resurgence of rivals have set the stage for an unpredictable showdown.
Barnala has been under AAP's control since 2014 with Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer winning two consecutive terms before moving to the Parliament as Sangrur MP. AAP’s new candidate, Harinder Singh Dhaliwal, close to Hayer, faced a rebellion from the party's former district president Gurdeep Bath contesting as an independent. This internal division could splinter AAP’s voter base, weakening its stronghold in urban and rural pockets alike.
The BJP, traditionally weak in Barnala, has fielded two-time former Congress MLA Kewal Singh Dhillon, relying heavily on urban support. Urban voters, who outnumber their rural counterparts — 88,429 to 61,657 — are seen as the BJP's core base. Dhillon’s promise to leverage Central Government projects to address local issues, including parking woes, healthcare, and employment, could sway voters seeking development.
Congress has nominated Kuldeep Singh ‘Kala’ Dhillon, a fresh face but a familiar figure in local politics. Kala’s campaign focused on criticizing the ruling AAP for failing to deliver on its promises while pledging to champion voter concerns like unemployment and rural distress. Congress’ challenge lies in countering defections and regaining its once-strong grassroots presence.
While AAP and BJP compete for urban votes, the rural electorate faced fragmentation. Akali Dal, not contesting for the first time since 1992, has left its traditional vote bank up for grabs. The influence of SAD (Amritsar) and independent Gurdeep Bath further complicated the rural dynamics. SAD (Amritsar) has fielded Govind Singh Mann — the maternal grandson of former MP and party chief Simranjit Singh Mann.
Barnala voters cite pressing issues such as drug abuse, inadequate healthcare facilities, poor traffic management, and the lack of educational infrastructure. The bypoll outcome hinges on which candidate succeeded in convincing the voters of their ability to address these concerns.
Political analysts suggested a close contest between AAP and Congress, with the BJP striving to make inroads. The deciding factor could be urban voters’ turnout and the sway of Akali Dal’s silent voter base.
Dera Baba Nanak: Cong MPs wife vs SAD-backed AAP
The Dera Baba Nanak assembly constituency in Gurdaspur district is brimming with political intrigue. The byelection here is a closely fought triangular contest among Congress, AAP, and BJP, with underlying complexities making it a political hotspot.
Dera Baba Nanak, a Congress stronghold since 1951, has been a stage for fierce electoral battles. Of the 14 elections held here, Congress has won nine times, with the Akali Dal securing five victories. Notably, the seat has been dominated by two influential families — the Randhawas of Congress and the Kahlons, formerly of Akali Dal, now with BJP. This time, Congress is represented by Jatinder Kaur Randhawa, wife of former MLA and Gurdaspur MP Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa; while BJP has fielded Ravikaran Singh Kahlon, son of former Akali Speaker Nirmal Singh Kahlon. AAP, aiming to disrupt this dynastic hold, has chosen Gurdeep Singh Randhawa.
The constituency boasts 1,95,604 registered voters, with 91,593 women and a significant rural majority of 95 percent. It also has Punjab’s highest Christian voter base, with over 35,000 individuals whose alignment could decisively sway the outcome. Historically, Congress and Akali Dal have alternated power here, with margins narrowing to as little as 466 votes in 2022. The Akali Dal’s absence from this election but its tacit support for AAP added further intrigue.
Congress bank heavily on the Randhawa family’s legacy. Jatinder Kaur’s campaign focused on her husband’s work, leveraging decades of influence and developmental initiatives attributed to the family. However, she is facing stiff competition from the ruling AAP, which highlighted its governance achievements, including free electricity, healthcare reforms, and a promise of infrastructure projects like an ITI and bio-gas plant in Dera Baba Nanak.
BJP, represented by Kahlon, struggled against farmer discontent due to perceived delays in crop procurement and policies under the Central Government. Ravikaran’s promises to champion farmers’ issues have not fully mitigated this opposition.
Despite opting out of the race, SAD holds sway through its 50,000-strong voter base. Its support for AAP could tilt the balance, yet internal divisions among its leaders leave room for unpredictability.
As the byelection looms, Dera Baba Nanak is precariously poised. While Congress counts on its entrenched roots and AAP leans on its governance model, BJP hopes to capitalize on the Kahlon family’s local clout. With Christian voters and rural discontent playing pivotal roles, the outcome remains uncertain, promising a nail-biting finish.
Chabbewal: Fight Between Turncoats
The political landscape of the Chabbewal reserved constituency in Hoshiarpur district is charged with anticipation. The contest, shaped by defection-driven candidacies and local dynamics, is expected to be a tight race between the ruling AAP and the Congress, with the BJP lagging behind.
AAP has fielded 31-year-old Dr Ishank Kumar, son of former MLA and sitting MP Dr Raj Kumar Chabbewal, whose strong grassroots connection is a formidable asset. Dr Ishank, although a political novice, benefitted from his father’s two-decade-long rapport with the electorate, backed by development work like roads, water supply, and a pivotal flyover.
Congress candidate Ranjit Kumar, a lawyer and head of Hoshiarpur Bar Association, entered the fray with limited preparation time. His campaign leveraged dissatisfaction with AAP’s governance and appeals to the Dalit-Bahujan vote bank. Meanwhile, BJP’s Sohan Singh Thandal, a seasoned politician and former Akali minister, struggled to overcome farmer resentment and his party’s diminishing rural appeal.
Chabbewal comprises 300 villages with 1,59,432 voters, including 83,704 men, 75,724 women, and four transgender voters. Historically, this constituency has swung between the Congress and the SAD. However, SAD’s absence in this election tilts the balance toward AAP and Congress. The Akali vote bank, crucial in determining outcomes, is being wooed aggressively by both AAP and BJP.
Among the factors favoring AAP are the legacy advantage with Dr Raj Kumar’s strong presence ensuring Dr Ishank inherited a well-established support base. Besides, the infrastructure projects completed under Dr Raj Kumar’s tenure resonated with voters, consolidating trust in his lineage. In addition, the BJP’s rural unpopularity has helped AAP in consolidating the non-Congress votes.
Talking about Congress’ prospects, first-timer Ranjit Kumar’s professional credibility and strategic focus on dalit and BSP votes positioned him as a strong challenger. However, his late entry and limited engagement time may dilute his impact. Nevertheless, the postponement of polling has provided Congress an opportunity to intensify outreach efforts.
Despite Thandal’s vast political experience, his shift from SAD to BJP and the ongoing farmer protests against the BJP led Central Government seems to have diminished his chances. His campaign hinged on rekindling SAD’s base, but the response apparently remained lukewarm.
Political experts suggested a slight edge for AAP, with Congress posing a close fight. While Dr Ishank Kumar leveraged his father’s goodwill, Ranjit Kumar’s calculated campaigning could narrow the gap. The BJP appeared to be a distant third, primarily banking on loyalist votes.
