As the results of the parliamentary elections on 13 seats will be doled out on Tuesday, the winners in Punjab will takes it all — not just the seats in the Lok Sabha but the prestige and honour that was involved in the multi-cornered high-staked ballot battle.
The warm political winds blowing across the State will bring more than just victory for the candidates in fray and also for the parties they represent. It will rather determine the fate and stature of political parties standing tall behind their candidates, other than the top leaders who were steering the bandwagons of their respective outfits.
Already witnessing a political storm, not even the political pundits can swear whether the winds of change will sweep the well-entrenched candidates off their feet, and bring in the new ones in these constituencies. Or else, the tempest will subside into a lull without uprooting the trees.
Earlier, Punjab’s political battleground has always witnessed a more or less direct contest between the two major arch rivals — Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine and the Congress. But, with the BJP and SAD going solo and the emergence of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the state politics with the two-election-old party forming the government in the state in 2022, the contest has become out-of-the-ordinary.
Unlike in previous elections, there were no political alliances between parties in Punjab this time around. Each party was fighting independently, vying for supremacy in a political arena defined by its unique challenges and regional complexities. The contest primarily revolved around the Congress-AAP rivalry, with the BJP’s entry and SAD’s attempts to harp on panthic agenda adding an intriguing twist to the narrative.
As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) stepped into the fray on all fronts for the first time in Punjab since 1996, the battle lines were redrawn, and the traditional vote banks were recalibrated. The urban constituencies held the key to BJP’s prospects, where its performance is expected to influence the electoral outcomes for the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the principal opposition Congress. A significant chunk of votes in these areas could tilt the scales in favour of one party over the other.
While the BJP stood solo, its rivals find common ground under the INDIA bloc, uniting against a common adversary. However, this solidarity bellied underlying tensions, as the Congress and AAP, contesting elections together in other states including neighbouring Haryana and Delhi, found themselves locked in a fierce face-off in Punjab due to local dynamics and leadership equations.
The BJP’s equation was disrupted by the farmers’ movement. While the Hindu and urban electorate lean towards the BJP, the farmers’ dissent has skewed the political calculus. With 65 percent of Punjab's population residing in rural areas and a significant Sikh majority, the farmers’ agitation has left a mark, particularly in the Malwa and Majha regions, diminishing the BJP's appeal among the majority Sikh votes.
For the Shiromani Akali Dal, the electoral battlefield presented formidable challenges. The party's performance hinged on its ability to regain support from those who had previously shifted allegiance to AAP, disillusioned with the incumbent government. The outcome of this contest will reflect not only the shifting political dynamics but also the electorate's evolving sentiments.
SAD’s fortunes are also expected to suffer as the three seats have pro-Khalistan supporters entering the fray, with two witnessing tight contests. Simranjit Singh Mann, the incumbent MP from Sangrur, seems to be losing voter favour, while Sarabjit Singh, son of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s one of the assassins, was locked in a close battle from Faridkot.
The third seat, Khadoor Sahib, is contested by NSA detainee Amritpal Singh, currently lodged in Assam’s Dibrugarh jail, is engaged in a fierce fight from the panthic seat.
In the backdrop of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the Congress emerged victorious in eight out of 13 seats, the current electoral landscape painted a different picture. With the AAP now at the helm under Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s leadership, the BJP’s resurgence added a new dimension to Punjab’s political landscape, setting the stage for a keenly contested electoral battle.
Amidst the prestige battle of prominent political families in Punjab, this Lok Sabha election takes on special significance. The familial politics of all major political dynasties in Punjab are at stake this time around.
For the Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, under whose leadership the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) swept the State over two years back, it is a prestige battle besides his popularity test. In addition, the results would appreciate or reject the AAP Government’s policies and programmes in the State after its two-year in power.
BJP, which is contesting the elections independently in the state for the first time since 1996, is looking to make inroads in the unexplored territories besides increasing the vote share while preparing the ground for 2027 state assembly polls.
But, it is the “others”, on some of the seats, which is expected to upset the equations of the four main players in some of the key segments.
AAP: Litmus Test of Governance and Challenge of Leadership
The elections serve as a crucial litmus test for AAP, which ascended to power in Punjab with a resounding majority under the banner of “badlav”. With Bhagwant Mann completing two and a half years in office, the party's governance was under intense scrutiny. Mann claimed achievements such as zero electricity bills for residents, providing government jobs, improving healthcare through mohalla clinics, and cracking down on corruption.
However, opposition parties continuously targeted the AAP Government on issues of law and order and political vendetta, portraying Mann as a puppet of Delhi's central leadership. One of the significant unfulfilled promises of Rs 1000 to 18-plus women may go against it.
Besides, the elections also brought to light AAP's leadership challenges in Punjab. The need to import leaders from Congress to contest in constituencies like Jalandhar, Hoshiarpur, and Fatehgarh Sahib indicated a shortage of strong candidates. Additionally, the decision to field Ministers in five constituencies besides legislators underscored this crisis.
CONGRESS: Betting on Big Names, Testing New Leadership
Congress is facing a critical juncture in Punjab, with prominent figures such as Capt Amarinder Singh, Sunil Jakhar, Preneet Kaur, Ravneet Bittu, Manpreet Badal, no longer with the party. Navjot Sidhu also stayed away. The party went to polls under the leadership of Amarinder Singh Raja Warring, with the high command showing significant trust in his leadership so far. However, if the party's performance in the elections falls short of expectations, Warring will face increased challenges within the Punjab Congress.
Congress’s move to field its prominent leaders such as Warring, Charanjit Channi, Sukhjinder Randhawa, Sukhpal Khaira, and Vijay Inder Singla sent a strong message to both the party cadre and the general public that the Congress is serious about the elections.
Despite this, the party appeared to be trailing in constituencies like Hoshiarpur, Faridkot, Bathinda, and Ferozepur due to its candidates’ profiles. Internal factionalism among leaders also posed significant challenges, particularly in key constituencies like Ludhiana.
BJP’s plank of Ram Temple Amid Farmer Discontent
Contesting all 13 Lok Sabha seats on its own in Punjab for the first time, BJP placed its hopes primarily on the Ram Temple issue, coupled with ‘Modi factor’ to garner support in urban areas. Party strategists believed that this served as a significant advantage, particularly among the state's approximately 38 percent Hindu population.
Besides, BJP leadership projected that Prime Minister Modi did more for Sikhs than any previous government or leader, highlighting achievements such as opening the Kartarpur Corridor, removing 312 out of 314 Sikhs from blacklist, making langar tax-free, developing Sultanpur Lodhi as a heritage city, and organizing historic programs, including issuing commemorative stamps and coins for Guru Gobind Singh Ji's 350th birth anniversary. Moreover, Modi announced the celebration of 'Veer Bal Diwas' on December 26 to honor the martyrdom of Guru Gobind Singh Ji's sons.
Until 2019, the BJP, in alliance with SAD, contested only three seats — Amritsar, Gurdaspur, and Hoshiarpur, but this time, BJP is fielding candidates in all 13 constituencies.
However, BJP faced several challenges in Punjab. Despite being a party with a robust organization and cadre, it lacked substantial presence in most constituencies. Out of the 13 seats, BJP had to import leaders from other parties for nearly 10 of them, turning into a Congress-yukt BJP. The lingering resentment from the farmers' movement also proved to be a significant obstacle, particularly in rural areas.
SAD: A Long Battle Ahead to Reclaim Lost Ground
Punjab’s lone regional party, SAD, contested its first election in the state since the demise of former Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal. With Sukhbir Badal at the helm, efforts are underway to reunite the party's old leaders, in an apparent attempt to revive the party.
Sukhbir and company harped on panthic agenda, revoking the issues of Operation Bluestar and anti-Sikh riots to win over the Sikh voters. Sukhbir even embarked on a Punjab Bachao Yatra ahead of polls to reenergize the party cadre. However, the party faced tough challenges in all seats, including the family bastion of Bathinda from where Sukhbir’s wife, Harsimrat Kaur Badal, is seeking reelection for the fourth time.
The party failed to bolster its presence in the seats like Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib, Ludhiana, Hoshiarpur, Gurdaspur, Patiala, and Khadoor Sahib.
