June 4, 2024, marked a significant day in Indian political history with the declaration of the 18th Lok Sabha results. This day was expected to see a major shift in power, potentially grounding the BJP and its allies while also confirming the accuracy of my analysis. While exit polls across the country predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led NDA with around 400 seats, my analysis suggested a more conservative estimate of 294 seats. Ultimately, the BJP (NDA) secured 292 seats, enabling them to form the government.
However, the results were a wake-up call for the BJP. The party, which had won an outright majority with 303 seats in 2019, saw its tally reduced to 240 seats in 2024—a loss of 63 seats over five years despite their highly publicized achievements. One significant factor was a one percent drop in vote share.
Several key reasons contributed to this decline in seats and votes. Firstly, the BJP's and Narendra Modi's overconfidence may have led to voter complacency, reducing turnout. Secondly, the widespread fear of enforcement agencies like the ED and CBI, discussed even by local paan shop owners through social media memes, created a climate of apprehension. Lastly, the politics of horse trading played a crucial role in shaping the election outcome.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for any political strategist navigating the complexities of Indian politics.
The BJP's overconfidence was epitomized by their slogan of crossing 400. Instead of building voter trust, this ambitious slogan failed to mobilize voters to leave their homes and cast their ballots. Additionally, the mistake of belittling the opposition and repeatedly focusing on Hindu-Muslim politics during rallies not only alienated voters but also led to voter apathy.
The decline in BJP's vote percentage indicates that Hindu voters who typically support Modi or the BJP either chose not to vote or opted to support another party. This shift underscores the consequences of the party's strategy and highlights the importance of understanding voter sentiments and behavior in political campaigns.
Secondly, the perception of the ED-CBI's actions became a significant issue, affecting everyone from big industrialists to grocery shop owners. The narrative that those not aligned with the government might face repercussions took hold, proving detrimental for the BJP. The opposition effectively amplified these concerns through social media, creating a widespread and deep-seated apprehension that the BJP underestimated.
As a result, voters from across the socioeconomic spectrum—from the lower middle class to the upper class—were influenced by these narratives, leading to a backlash against the BJP at the polls. This miscalculation highlights the critical need for a deep understanding of public sentiment and the impact of opposition campaigns in political strategy.
Third and most importantly, the politics of horse-trading angered the general public. A notable example occurred in Indore, where, despite a strong likelihood of a BJP victory, the Congress candidate was brought into the BJP on the day of nomination withdrawals. This move sparked widespread criticism and was seen as a wrong step by many across the country.
Additionally, BJP's decision to give tickets to candidates from the BSP and SP, while side-lining its own leaders, further backfired. These actions not only alienated loyal BJP supporters but also painted the party as opportunistic, damaging its reputation and costing it crucial votes.
Writer is President in PR24x7, Having Expertise in Media Management, Corporate Reputation Management, Brand Reputation Management and Crisis & Issues Management.
