Even as India had a good monsoon season with adequate rain this year, the prices of kitchen staples - onion, potato are expected to shoot up as output of these items is estimated to be lower in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23.
Other vegetables such as brinjal, elephant foot yam, and capsicum may also see reduced output. This might pose a challenge in controlling prices of these essential items, which can play a crucial role in food inflation in the coming days. India’s retail inflation rose to 3.65% in August, slightly higher than 3.6% reported in July. The inflation was within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term target of 2-6%.
Data showed that onion and potato production is expected to be 242.44 lakh tonnes and 570.49 lakh tonnes respectively in 2023-24 in the country mainly due to decrease in production reported in Bihar and West Bengal. The tomato production is estimated to be 213.20 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 compared to around 204.25 lakh tonnes last year, an increase by 4.38 percent. Meanwhile, production of vegetables is expected to be around 205.80 million tonnes, an increase over 2022-23.
According to Department of Consumer Affairs’ website, potato, onion and tomato are being sold at Rs 38, Rs 58 and Rs 48 a kg in the retail market. In neighbourhood markets, onion is being sold at Rs 60-70/ kg, potato Rs 50/ kg and tomato Rs 50/ kg in the retail market. The rise in tomato output has helped reduce the cost of meals, with vegetarian thalis down by eight per year-on-year and non-vegetarian meals by 12 per cent.
However, production of apple, citrus fruits, guava, litchi, pomegranate, and pineapple is likely to fall, according to the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.
In the first such dip in nine years, as per the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare’s third Advance Estimates of 2023-24 of area and production of various horticultural crops, the country’s horticulture production is estimated to fall marginally by 0.65 per cent to 353.19 million tonnes in 2023-24 as compared to the previous year. These figures highlight the mixed performance of India’s horticulture sector, with some crops flourishing while others facing challenges in the 2023-24 crop year.
The second advance estimate for 2023-24, released in June, had predicted the total production of horticultural crops at 352.23 million tonnes.
According to the ministry, the production of apple, sweet orange, mandarin, guava, litchi, pomegranate, pineapple are expected to decrease as compared to 2022-23. “Increase is expected in production of tomato, cabbage, cauliflower, tapioca, bottle gourd, pumpkin, carrot, cucumber, bitter gourd, parwal and okra, whereas, decrease in production is envisaged in potato, onion, brinjal, elephant foot yam, capsicum, and other vegetables,” the Government data showed.
The production of fruits, honey, flowers, plantation crops, spices and aromatics and medicinal plants is estimated to increase over 2022-23, as per data (third advance estimates) from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. The production of fruits is expected to increase by 2.29 per cent to 112.73 million tonnes, mainly due to increases in production of mango, banana, lime/ lemon, grapes, custard apple and other fruits.
India has received rainfall of 875.9 mm as against the normal 827.6 mm, which is more than six per cent this year so far.
