The recent camaraderie between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress, fostered through the INDIA bloc, is now under strain as the two parties wrestle over seat-sharing arrangements for the upcoming by-elections in Uttar Pradesh.

Despite their shared success in the Lok Sabha elections-where the SP-Congress coalition secured 43 out of 80 seats in the state-the upcoming contest for 10 Assembly seats has exposed tensions within the

alliance over the Muslim vote bank.

The 10 seats up for by-elections-Meerapur, Ghaziabad, Khair, Kundarki, Karhal, Phulpur, Sisamau, Milkipur, Katheri, and Majhwan-were previously held by the SP (five seats), BJP (three), RLD (one), and the NISHAD Party (one) in the 2022 state elections.

While the common goal of defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) remains a binding factor for both SP and Congress, a growing struggle for dominance over the Muslim vote bank has created significant friction.

Muslim voters, who form a critical part of the electorate in several of these constituencies, have become the focal point of the dispute, particularly in constituencies like Meerapur in Bijnor district, Phulpur in Allahabad, and Majhwan in eastern Uttar Pradesh.

“This is an interesting turn of events, as both so-called allies are now competing for Muslim votes and eyeing constituencies where Muslims are in the majority,” said Manoj Bhadra, a political analyst familiar with the region.

According to Bhadra, the tussle over these key seats is threatening the fragile alliance, with each party vying for control over territories seen as potential game-changers in future elections.

Sources within both the SP and Congress indicate that the battle for these seats is intensifying, with neither side willing to cede ground easily. Congress, which has begun preparing for all 10 by-election seats, is reportedly not aggressively pushing for the five seats that SP won in 2022-Karhal, Kundarki, Sisamau, Milkipur, and Katheri.

However, Congress remains insistent on contesting the five seats that were previously won by the BJP, including key constituencies such as Meerapur, Phulpur, and Majhwan.

Congress media in-charge, CP Rai, explained the party’s position. “Our claim is on the five seats won by the BJP. The SP can contest the seats it won last time and leave the rest to us,” he told this reporter.

Meerapur, vacated after RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan won the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat, has become a flashpoint. Congress sees the seat, with its significant Muslim population, as crucial for the upcoming 2027 Assembly elections. “The demographic profile of Meerapur could be a game-changer,” explained a senior Congress leader, underscoring the strategic importance of the seat.

The SP, however, is determined to hold onto Meerapur, seeing it as a critical piece in their bid to consolidate their hold over minority-dominated constituencies. It is also reluctant to let go of Phulpur, a seat vacated by BJP MLA Praveen Singh Patel after his victory in the Lok Sabha elections. SP leaders argue that the party has come close to winning Phulpur in the past two Assembly elections.

“The Congress is getting too ambitious,” remarked a senior SP leader, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The final decision on seat-sharing will be made by the national leadership, but we’re not willing to concede seats where we have a strong chance of victory.”

According to him, SP has already offered Congress the seats of Ghaziabad and Khair, but remains firm on retaining Meerapur, Phulpur, and Majhwan.

The stakes for both parties are enormous. For Congress, these by-elections represent a crucial opportunity to solidify its position in Uttar Pradesh ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, where it hopes to present a credible alternative to the BJP and SP. For SP, retaining control over key constituencies, especially those with large minority populations, is essential for maintaining its position as the principal opposition party in the state.

Political observers believe that the outcome of the by-elections could serve as a bellwether for the alliance’s future prospects. If SP and Congress can successfully navigate their differences and present a united front, they stand a chance of further consolidating their position against the BJP.

However, if the seat-sharing talks continue to stall, the Alliance risks unravelling, potentially opening the door for the BJP to exploit divisions and reclaim lost ground.