Trump’s return could offer India a pivotal role in global tech and manufacturing
The third time is a charm, as the saying goes and we are not talking about PM Modi coming back to power for three consecutive terms, but his close friend, the 47th President of the US, Donald Trump. Having successfully dodged a couple of bullets (quite literally), impeachments, and felony charges, President Trump, triumphed over the collective choice of the most powerful economy in the world the United States of America. While the right-wingers across the globe, including in India celebrated his victory, as a literal victory for the “RIGHT” and what they saw as the tyranny of the so-called “left” liberals, President Trump 2.0 is most likely to be more nuanced than his version one. What it means for India is a mixed box of chocolates which can be bitter or boldly sweet depending on the pick.
President-elect Trump is known to be a hard negotiator, particularly on trade topics and he has famously described India as one of the highest offenders on this front. He is a businessman with decades of experience and has a transactional approach to trade, something not alien to Indian politicians particularly, from the Western regions. Trump’s presidency 1.0 and the humungous growth in India-US bilateral commercial relations, plus a business-oriented Indian government at the centre, for now over a decade, has also served as a training ground for several tough negotiators to emerge from the bureaucratic class in India. Therefore, while officials in the government are aware of the tough negotiations ahead with the US on trade-related matters or import tariffs or say restrictions, they are hopeful, of finding a middle path given their familiarity with the President’s style of functioning.
The dragon in the room would be cagey, as President-elect Trump in the run-up to the elections has vowed to impose stiff tariffs on imports from China. This may be great news for India, especially with the current government’s focus being on making Bharat the manufacturing hub for electronics hardware, at least for the region.
Indian bureaucrats pushing the manufacturing envelope are deeply aware, that developing India into a hub, is a long-term game that may outlive the current regimes in DC and Delhi. They are also acutely aware that, by allowing friendshoring to India, by large US companies in the China plus one model, Trump will have an advantage. He could negotiate this card by pressuring India to buy perhaps more hydrocarbons or defence technology from the US. While the technology partnership was not primarily the centrepiece of India US bilateral relationship under Trump 1.0, his successor Joe Biden created a delectable topping with cooperation on critical and emerging technologies as an important element of the partnership. Initiatives such as iCET ( initiative for critical and emerging technologies) which are directly monitored by the heads of both countries have put an unwavering sanctity to the tech partnership between the two democracies.
President Trump could either encourage US tech to keep fulfilling India’s avowed target of being the next global electronics manufacturing hub while holding it as a bargaining chip, or, he may find a creative solution to persuade some of these companies to shift back some of their factories to domestic shores. The latter possibility seems unlikely as Donald Trump has, traditionally been a huge supporter of creating more jobs for Americans in the old manufacturing sectors. Much of President Trump’s technology policy is likely to be curated by his biggest donor and tech czar Elon Musk. Elon Musk has business interests in China where he has some of his largest Tesla factories, besides, he has been trying to enter the Indian automobile market with little success. His other business interests including satellite-based telecommunication services, have struggled to start beaming in India. Many of these factors would determine the crucial next four years of the Modi-Trump era.
(The writer is a policy analyst; views are personal)
