Trump’s second term promises to reshape alliances and influence critical issues, including US-India relations, climate policy and the global energy market

Donald Trump has made history by winning the 2024 US Presidential election, securing 292 Electoral College votes and defeating Kamala Harris, the media’s favoured candidate. His resounding victory marks a significant comeback and has reignited debates globally about what his second term might bring. This election wasn’t without its drama, as Trump survived an assassination attempt on September 15, 2024, amid allegations of interference from powerful interest groups attempting to prevent his reelection. The victory was further shaped by the support of influential figures, including Indian American Vivek Ramaswamy, a former Republican hopeful who backed Trump. “Trump’s comeback is America’s comeback,” Ramaswamy remarked, applauding Trump’s strong persona as a “badass Commander-in-Chief” that many believe the US needs.

A substantial part of Trump’s campaign success was due to substantial financial support from allies like Elon Musk, who reportedly contributed $119 million to the campaign. Musk’s active presence on X (formerly Twitter) and outspoken defence of Trump against media criticism played a key role, particularly in swing states like Texas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. This unconventional alliance between Trump and Musk has sparked speculation and surprise, even influencing figures abroad, such as Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus. Previously critical of Trump, Yunus has become a reluctant admirer following Trump’s success.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also likely pleased with Trump’s return. The two leaders share a warm rapport, marked by a mutual understanding rooted in their strong nationalist stances. Though Modi was unable to meet Trump during his September 2024 visit to the US due to protocol issues, Trump’s victory strengthens India-US ties and suggests a renewed focus on strategic cooperation between the two nations.

Trump’s “America First” policy will likely shape his approach to foreign relations in this term. Expect him to push allies, including NATO and the European Union, to shoulder more of their defence costs. He may scale back US involvement in international conflicts, aiming instead to negotiate peace agreements that align with American interests.

A notable example is his stance on Ukraine: Trump’s re-election could mean a reduction in US military and financial support for Ukraine, possibly pressuring the country toward a peace settlement with Russia—a development that could lead to a significant de-escalation of the conflict.

In the Indo-Pacific region, Trump’s focus will likely remain on curbing China’s influence and India could play a pivotal role in these efforts. India’s strategic importance as a counterbalance to China in the region aligns well with Trump’s vision. The US-India partnership could expand in sectors like defence, technology and energy security. Trump’s push for “reshoring” American manufacturing from China may create new investment opportunities for India, especially in high-growth industries like pharmaceuticals, electronics, and renewable energy.

Energy collaboration will also likely be a highlight of US-India relations. With India’s growing energy needs, Trump’s focus on US energy independence could lead to mutually beneficial trade in oil, natural gas, and renewable technologies, while US firms may look to invest in India’s energy infrastructure. However, Trump’s immigration policies, particularly concerning H-1B visas for skilled workers, may remain a point of contention. While Trump generally supports highly skilled professionals, further restrictions on visas could push India to enhance its own tech ecosystem, promoting more in-country growth and innovation.

Trump’s stance on climate change negotiations may remain divisive. Given his scepticism toward multilateral climate agreements, he could once again withdraw the US from global climate accords. This could impact the efficacy of initiatives like the Paris Agreement, where developed countries have pledged $100 billion to support developing nations.

So far, only a fraction of this amount has materialised, raising concerns about the long-term viability of global climate targets. Trump’s reluctance to support these accords without substantial changes could weaken international resolve on climate issues.

India will closely watch Trump’s policies on counterterrorism, particularly regarding Pakistan, a country that has historically been linked to terrorism in the region. Trump’s past rhetoric and strong stance against terrorism suggest he may align with India’s concerns. A tougher US stance on Pakistan could address India’s longstanding issues with cross-border terrorism, potentially strengthening US-India ties in this area.

Trump’s complex relationship with the US media, especially during the 2024 campaign, added another layer to the narrative. Musk was one of the few who openly supported Trump on X, condemning what they saw as a biased media landscape that often criticised Trump. This approach may have contributed to his strong showing in swing states, bolstered by Musk’s strategic influence on social media.

As Trump prepares to re-enter the White House in January 2025, the world anticipates how his policies will unfold. His administration’s priorities are expected to bring significant shifts in US domestic and foreign policy, from trade and immigration to international alliances and climate action. Global leaders and citizens alike are waiting to see how Trump’s assertive approach to governance will redefine America’s role on the world stage.

(The writer is former member of Indian Forest Service; views are personal)