The global geopolitical landscape grows more complex with Russia-China ties
The gruelling Indian elections, one of the largest democratic exercises in the world will be over in a week or so. A hectic flurry of pending policy decisions is likely to start immediately. If the current party comes back, a hundred days action-packed agenda would be rolled out by most major Government departments, going by PM Modi’s Stated objective of not wasting a minute after polls are over. However, the geo-political space, which existed when the elections were declared, has become far more complex refusing to wind down any time soon.
To be fair some of the changes are driven by elections happening all across the globe during 2024, including in key European Union and US. This will ensure that almost all multilateral forums, where these key constituents and India are major contributors, would be subject to pressures of domestic politics and issues. Meanwhile, India’s long-standing partner Russia, finished their election nearly a month back and upon reelection President Putin undertook his first State visit to China last week. Russia and China have emerged as the key UN Security Council permanent members, whose interests and policies are not likely to align with the US-led block any time soon.
The joint Statement released after President Putin’s visit to China highlighted the importance of his visit to China. It was a message to the wider Western block of countries opposed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coming at a time when the Chinese president had just come back after meeting every senior leader from the European Union, the French President and reaffirmed firm support from a couple of East European countries. The European Union and recently the US have expressed grave concerns and taken some tariff measures regarding China’s non-competitive trade practices, especially regarding State-subsidised cheap Electric vehicles flooding their markets. Apprehensions have been raised by Indian trade associations that the loss of the lucrative US market for Chinese Electric vehicles could lead to, these automotive products being dumped in India leading to a situation similar to Europe and the US. In this context Russia seems to have come out in full support of the Chinese automotive sector, perhaps also sending a strong message to Europe and the US. In the media Statement released during Mr Putin’s State visit to China, he mentioned “Regarding bilateral industrial cooperation, we are pleased to witness the proactive expansion of Chinese automakers and household appliance manufacturers in the Russian market. As discussed during our talks and as the President said, we acknowledge the detrimental effect of any unlawful actions, sanctions, or restrictions. We wholeheartedly embrace collaboration with our Chinese counterparts..”
China has refrained from overtly criticising Russia over its war in Ukraine and has in the past been accused of supplying military equipment stealthily. Even though Ukraine found mention in both Statements by President Putin and President Xi Jinping, it was velvet-gloved, under larger international foreign policy issues and overall commentary on geo-political matters. On foreign policy matters Russian president’s Statement read “We are working together to create a fairer and more democratic multipolar world order based on the central role of the UN and its Security Council, international law, cultural and civilizational diversity, as well as a calibrated balance of interests of all members of the international community. We believe that the creation of such alliances is extremely harmful and counterproductive.” Reforming multilateral institutions, especially the UN and a permanent membership has been a long-term foreign policy goal for PM Modi. In the wake of geopolitics, the new Government will have its task cut out on foreign policy.
(The writer is a policy analyst; views are personal)
