The meeting underscored India's strategic balancing act between global powers while prioritising its own economic and security needs
Just when there was a growing perception that ties between India and Russia were losing momentum, even stagnating, the summit-level meeting between PM Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin should help impart a fresh impetus to bilateral relations.
Held after a gap of over two years, amid the ongoing geopolitical churn, the 22nd summit saw the two sides resolve to unlock the full potential of their strategic partnership. The summit’s outcomes conveyed New Delhi’s intent to continue to forge closer ties with Moscow, notwithstanding the widespread Western opprobrium Putin has drawn after Russia invaded Ukraine and the consequent sanctions slapped on his country. With Putin preoccupied with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, now into its third year, the summit-level meetings had fallen by the wayside. The last summit was held in New Delhi in December 2021.
The summit indicated eagerness on the part of both sides to not just reinvigorate the ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’, but also make economic cooperation the lynchpin of the relationship. This was reflected in a separate joint statement spelling out nine key areas for economic cooperation, with a new bilateral trade target of $ 100 billion being set for 2030. While the Modi-Putin Summit left Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressing “disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal”, it’s unlikely to hurt New Delhi’s close ties with Kyiv. India may not have condemned the invasion, but Modi did tell Putin “there is no peace on the battlefield” while reiterating India’s position on the need for dialogue. While Washington also expressed its displeasure over the Modi-Putin meeting, it is unlikely that will allow this to impact the trajectory of its ties with Moscow, propelled as they are by India’s strategic imperatives. One of them, of course, is the tightening Russia-China embrace. The thrust on closer ties with Russia will also help address Moscow’s concerns over New Delhi’s decidedly pronounced tilt towards Washington. India has so far managed to do a fine balancing act between the two geopolitical rivals and should continue to do so.
India sees Russia as a time-tested trusted partner. Much as the Western world would like to keep a sanctions-hit Russia isolated over the Ukraine war, India’s push for broader and deeper economic linkages reflects its own strategic needs.India’s purchase of Russian oil despite the sanctions will not just continue but is expected to increase further. Crude imports from Russia have increased from 2.5 million tonnes in 2021 to 90 million tonnes in 2023, with India being clear this is vital for its energy security. Investments in the energy sector by both sides also remain a top priority. Fertilizer imports from Russia, too, are seen as vital for India’s agriculture sector. Russian oil imports have helped push the bilateral trade figures to $65.70 billion. But while Indian imports were worth $61.44 billion, its exports accounted for a mere $4.26 billion.
While happy to import Russian oil at discounted rates, New Delhi will need to address this trade imbalance by widening the trade basket with Russia. Among the major export items from India are pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals, iron and steel and electrical machinery.
That the two sides agreed to look at the possibility of eliminating non-tariff trade barriers and the setting up of a Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU)-India Free Trade Area shows the seriousness of intent to promote bilateral trade. The nudge to begin full negotiations for a free trade agreement between India and the EAEU too should lend a fillip to trade ties.
Connectivity too remains a priority for both sides. It would mean access for Indian goods to the Eurasian markets. However, the proposed INSTC (International North-South Transport) Corridor is still a long way away from becoming a reality. While there is renewed interest between the two sides to establish a Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor, which was first mooted in 2019, it also remains to be seen whether it will fructify. The summit, of course, also emphasized the importance of robust cooperation in the defence sector, which is an important element of India’s security paradigm. Russia remains India’s biggest arms supplier despite New Delhi’s continuing efforts to diversify by turning to others like the US, France and Israel to meet its requirements. India would have undoubtedly sought to address its concerns over the delays in the supply of Russian military hardware and spares owing to the Ukraine war.The Modi-Putin Summit may have left the West fulminating, but it’s fairly obvious New Delhi will plough its furrow so long as it serves its strategic priorities. The writer is a senior journalist who writes on foreign affairs.
(The writer is a senior journalist; views are personal)
