Will Oli’s stance on the BRI and his decision to prioritise China over India define his political legacy or deepen Nepal’s internal divides?
In Kathmandu, I observed that Nepal Prime Minister KP Oli’s visit to China has become a hot potato in the chilly Kathmandu valley. The China visit is being portrayed by his Unified Marxist Leninist Party (UML)-led coalition government as a bold initiative by Oli to resolve the long-pending BRI Implementation plan. The BRI Framework Agreement 2017 signed by Nepal figured during the maiden visit of President Xi Jinping in 2019 when Xi announced NC Rs 60 bn in grants under BRI. Since 2008, China has announced NC Rs 80 bn in grants. It seems the government could not use the aid for projects under BRI due to some issues.
Several delegations from both countries have interacted over the BRI Implementation plan for a long but the plan has not been signed.
Oli last visited China in 2016 after the Indian blockade and signed several agreements including energy trade but almost none has materialised. China is insisting that BRI projects that were truncated at Beijing’s request from 35 to 9 be under loan whereas Nepal, especially Nepali Congress, the senior coalition partner, wants them under grant. There were fears Oli might sign in to please the Chinese which resulted in considerable squabbling between them. A high-level task force of the two parties has been meeting to arrive at a consensus. Opposition lawmakers wanted all the agreements signed so far to be made public and discussed in Parliament and with civil society. At a UML meeting, Oli recently announced he would not sign BRI for the sake of coalition unity.
Chinese envoy Chen Song who had been lobbying with lawmakers to sign the BRI plan has clarified that Chinese-built Pokhara airport would not be converted from loan to grant. Foreign Minister Arzu Rana is going to China on November 28 to prepare for Oli’s visit with some plans on BRI.
The other troubling issue was ‘the first where – China or India’ visit of Oli. Traditionally barring two exceptions – Prime Ministers Tanka Prasad Acharya and Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) - all others on becoming PM have first gone to New Delhi. Prachanda had clarified that his was not a state visit to China but he had gone for the Beijing Olympics. India has not invited all PMs – like Madhav Nepal, Jhalanath Khanal, and Sushil Koirala – from both Left and Centre-Right parties but New Delhi has historically favoured Nepali Congress. Oli had said some pretty undiplomatic, even unkind things about India during his second term as PM after he had internationalised the Kalapani dispute and made it into a national issue. But later, Oli did work with India. Oli going to China without Beijing making any concession on BRI is cocking a snook at India.
During the annual Kantipur Conclave in Kathmandu this month, he clarified that as a sovereign nation, a PM can visit any country first. He compared the ‘first visit India or China conundrum’ to visiting Nizamuddin or Ajmer Sharif first: which made little impact on the mainly Nepali audience, adding that his visit to China will not harm relations with India.
For Nepal maintaining balance between India and China is a vital strategic mission that the founding father of Nepal, Prithvi Narayan Shah had described as a yam between two boulders. Geography and social and cultural factors have favoured India. The dethroned Maoist leader and four-time PM Prachanda, Oli’s erstwhile short-term partner, accused him in an interview with an Indian journalist who had come for the Kantipur Conclave, of playing the China card. UML was incensed by the allegation, demanding an apology from Prachanda.
At the Kantipur Conclave, Prachanda informed the audience that he was happy he was no longer heading the government as he could atone for his party’s mistakes and serve the people better. He clarified that with 32 seats, he had never sought power but others (NC and UML) had come to him to form the government.
He asserted he had made a direct assault on corruption – the no 1 bane of Nepal – and put many corrupt leaders including members of his party, and those who had supported his government in jail. This included the newsmaker and former Home Minister, Rabi Lamichhane from the Rashtriya Swatantra Party who is at present in jail, being investigated for fraud. In Kathmandu, I discovered that Lamichhane has created a problem for the government on which jail he should be lodged in, due to massive protests by his supporters. They took him to the Terai towns but not to his citadel in Chitwan and brought him back to Pokhara as they were unable to present him before a Kathmandu court to avoid creating law and order issues. Every other day there are massive traffic jams in Kathmandu over some issue or the other.
Oli was cool about Rabi, saying at the Kantipur Conclave that he had ‘once given Rabi a job (in Nepal Television)’ but did not know much about his case. The parliamentary probe that was ordered on him as demanded by the Nepali Congress was at the behest of PM Prachanda and Rabi himself who was the Home Minister in the coalition government. He added: “let law take its course”. Oli’s China conundrum was grabbing headlines. By declaring he won’t sign the BRI Implementation plan on Chinese terms for coalition unity he has taken the fizz out of the champagne that was to be popped after his visit.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff; views are personal)
