The fallout threatens to disrupt visa processes, immigration pathways, and opportunities for Indian workers and students in Canada

The fallout of the current diplomatic tensions between India and Canada, particularly in the wake of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations and expulsions of diplomats by both countries, could have significant consequences for Indian citizens working, studying, or planning to immigrate to Canada. Trudeau’s Liberal Party has been facing declining support, and his minority government has been kept afloat by the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, a prominent Sikh politician.

The NDP’s support base includes a significant portion of Canada’s Sikh population, and Trudeau may be attempting to retain their support by taking a tough stance against India, which is perceived by some Sikhs in Canada as being hostile to their interests. The deteriorating relations between the two countries may affect several key areas: 

Impact on Indian Workers in Canada. Indian Workforce in Canada: Indians form a significant part of Canada’s skilled workforce, especially in sectors like IT, healthcare, engineering and finance. Over the years, Canada has become a top destination for experienced professionals from India due to its immigration-friendly policies. Visa and Work Permit Issues: While the immediate impact on Indian workers in Canada has been limited, any prolonged diplomatic standoff could lead to delays in the processing of work permits, visa renewals and permanent residency (PR) applications. The processing times might increase, and stricter scrutiny could be imposed. 

Uncertainty for Future Migrants: Potential immigrants or those awaiting work permits may face hurdles in terms of visa approvals. If relations continue to sour, Canada might impose tighter immigration controls on Indian workers, which could hamper the flow of professionals into the country.

Impact on Indian Students in Canada:

There is large Indian Student Population in Canada as it has become a major destination for Indian students, with nearly 320,000 Indian students enrolled in Canadian universities as of 2023. The country’s world-class education system, relatively easier immigration pathways post-graduation, and diverse work opportunities have made it attractive for Indian students. 

Visa Delays: The current diplomatic tension may lead to delays in student visa approvals or increased scrutiny of applications. While there is no immediate indication that Indian students will face outright rejections, the uncertainty could cause stress and delays in admission procedures, particularly for new applicants. Post-Graduation Work Opportunities: Many Indian students stay in Canada after completing their studies under post-graduation work permits (PGWP) and eventually apply for permanent residency.

The growing tension could complicate this process, making it harder for students to transition smoothly from education to employment.

Impact on Immigration Pathways: Canada’s Express Entry programme, which has been highly favourable for Indian professionals and students seeking permanent residency, might slow down or become more stringent if the diplomatic rift deepens.

There could be longer processing times, more rigorous background checks, and even potential policy changes affecting Indian applicants. 

Family Reunification: Indian citizens who have family members in Canada and are in the process of family reunification (sponsorship programmes) could face delays in their applications due to the diplomatic standoff. Trade and Bilateral Agreements

Professional Mobility: If diplomatic tensions continue, professional exchanges, joint ventures, and corporate partnerships involving Indian and Canadian companies might slow down. This could reduce job opportunities for Indian professionals working for Canadian companies in sectors like IT, telecommunications, and consulting. Impact on New Immigration Streams: The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which India and Canada had been discussing, could be put on hold.

This would affect initiatives meant to streamline immigration for Indian professionals and create pathways for smoother trade and employment relations.

Solutions to Mitigate the Fallout Diplomatic Resolution: The most effective way to mitigate the fallout is through diplomatic dialogue. Both governments must find common ground and work towards de-escalation. Diplomatic channels should prioritise resolving misunderstandings while protecting the interests of citizens on both sides.  Temporary Shift to Alternative Countries: While waiting for the situation to stabilise, students and professionals might consider alternative countries such as the UK, Australia, or Germany, which offer similar educational and work opportunities for Indian nationals.

Vote Bank Politics and the Sikh Community’s Role in Canada: Canada has one of the largest Sikh populations outside of India, with an estimated 770,000 Sikhs, making up about 2 per cent of the total Canadian population.

Many of these Sikhs are concentrated in electoral districts in British Columbia, Ontario, and Alberta. In some constituencies, Sikhs represent a significant voting bloc, which can influence election outcomes. 

Upcoming Elections: With elections expected by 2025, Trudeau needs to consolidate his support among key communities. Given the current minority government status, he must rely on alliances, such as with the NDP, and maintain his standing in immigrant-rich constituencies, including those dominated by Sikhs.

His recent diplomatic actions appear designed to shore up this support by aligning himself with issues important to these groups.  The Sikh community has historically supported the Liberal Party, particularly under Trudeau. Many high-profile Sikh leaders, including ministers in his cabinet, are from this community.

Thus, maintaining their support is crucial for the Liberal Party’s prospects in the next election. Khalistan Issue: While not all Sikhs in Canada support the Khalistan movement, those who do have formed influential advocacy groups that have pushed the issue into Canadian politics. Trudeau’s overtures to this section of the electorate have been interpreted as efforts to protect his vote base, especially as his government faces increasing political pressure ahead of future elections.

Experts say that Trudeau may also be positioning himself as a defender of Canadian sovereignty by alleging foreign interference, a move that could resonate with voters concerned about national security.

This fits with broader concerns in the West about foreign interference in domestic politics, even though India has categorically denied the allegations. 

India-Canada ties are indeed at their lowest ebb following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusation that Indian agents were involved in the killing of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil.

This extreme diplomatic move, which has severely strained relations between the two countries, is seen as a combination of vote bank politics and Trudeau’s handling of domestic pressures, especially in light of upcoming elections.

(Writer is a strategic columnist; views are personal)