The Opposition’s revival from near-disarray presents a formidable challenge but may fall short of the impact needed to dislodge the BJP-led NDA

With phase four of the polling over, we are more than halfway through the ongoing Lok Sabha polls. There is no denying that the opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Congress, has been able to create a perspective that it isn’t a one-sided battle and the fight was on all the seats.

The usual gimmicks of stock market predictions and illegal ‘satta’ gambling forecasts have started to emerge on social media and private WhatsApp groups. However the underlying message is that come what may, the BJP shall be able to form the Government. This probably emerges from the faith the BJP supporters have in the abilities of Prime Minister Narendra Modi being a leader with gargantuan mass appeal.

However, there is also no denying the fact that the opposition was in tatters when the poll campaign started but by the passing of time have been able to create an image of a close fight, which in the end could prove to be just a mirage. Nevertheless, the Congress campaign in the 2024 polls, whatever the results, would remain an area of discussion among the political scientists in the times to come.

Congress’s poll preparation could be said to have begun from the conclave it had at Udaipur in 2022. The declarations at the ‘Udaipur Shivir’ talked talked of building a vibrant organisation. This came in the backdrop of desertions plaguing the party especially from their most prominent leader Rahul Gandhi’s coterie. In 2022, when the Congress met in Rajasthan, one right decision it took was to hold the polls for the post of the president of the All India Congress Committee. It did activate the party and in Mallik arjun Kharge, the party has found a good campaigner, who not only campaigns hard but makes a lot of sense with what he says.

Strategically, unlike the Vidhan Sabha polls held some months back in the four States, the leadership has consolidated on the alliance despite the initial hiccup caused by its very convener, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar walking out of the formation. Though some point out that Kharge and not Nitish was foisted as the chair of the alliance, as given his track record, Nitish’s opposition to the BJP was always suspect.

The second move by Congress has been to channel the strength of the alliance partners to keep itself afloat. To this end, the Congress is contesting just 328 seats this time, much lower than what it had contested in the 2019 polls. Last time it had contested 421 seats. The party would have contested 330 seats this time but for the rejection of the papers of its candidate in Surat and its candidate withdrawing in Indore.

This means that the Congress in INDIA has created an alliance base that is much wider than that of the United Peoples Alliance (UPA). This also means that the party has shrunk from the position of a dominant partner to a senior partner with some other members of the bloc like the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab not even entertaining an alliance.

Those in charge of the alliance forging for the party claim that the grouping this time is much more pragmatic than in 2019. The case in point is Uttar Pradesh. The party went into the 2019 polls all by itself. With no major allies and up against the BJP and the SP-BSP alliance, Congress contested 67 of the State’s 80 seats. It could win only one: Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli.

This time in alliance with the Samajwadi Party it’s contesting just 17 seats, down by 50 seats. People close to poll planning, point out that it has been done to conserve the party resources for more realistic contests. Similarly West Bengal, after contesting 40 seats in 2019 is contesting just 14 seats this time giving the remaining seats to the alliance partner - the Left parties. Similar arrangements have been made in other States. Now how would that affect the final results? The BJP in 2024 wants to equal the performance of the Congress in 1984 when it got more than 400 seats. What’s not to be forgotten is that those 400 seats came as a harvest of the sympathy wave in the favour of the party following the assassination of then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

What makes BJP in 2024 different from Congress in 1984 is that it has delivered on its ideological agenda thus the cadre commitment would be there. Based on that the saffron party has expanded its poll machinery. This could work both ways, if there is an undercurrent, it would bring bonus points and if there is voter indifference, the performance should not fall below, as they say in commerce, the reserve price.

(The writer is the author and president, the Centre for Reforms, Development & Justice; views expressed are personal)