In the wake of escalating climate change, a looming crisis unfolds as millions face displacement, transforming them into ‘climate refugees’. From the perilous US-Mexico border crossings to the sinking Small Island Developing States, the impact reverberates globally, write Chitrangada and Yasudhara

Climate change is real, and humanity is facing a potential threat. It has the power to reshape the planet Earth in the days to come, and we, as humans, are solely responsible for these unnatural changes. In April 2021, when the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) released data, it highlighted that the number of people displaced by climate change-related disasters since 2010 has increased to 21.5 million. Furthermore, the Ecosystem Threat Register (ETR) released in September 2018 by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), an Australian think tank, stated that by 2050, around 1.2 billion people will be displaced by these climate-related threats.

In 2018, when the UN adopted the Global Compact on Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration, it clearly stated that one of the factors causing large-scale migration of people is the adverse impacts of climate change and environmental degradation. Again, in March 2018, the UN Human Rights Council adopted an outcome document that strongly focused on cross-border movement of people brought about by climate crises from the angle of human rights protection.

The term “climate refugees” refers to climate-related migration. However, it is not adequately defined by global governance agencies like the UN or migration-related forums in the true sense of the term. The term was first coined to describe the growing large-scale migration and cross-border mass movement of people affected by natural disasters. Climate refugees are now the world’s forgotten victims, so to speak. They are not receiving what they urgently deserve.

One of the real dangers emerging from environmental chaos is the problem of “climate refugees” in many parts of the globe. It is affecting people from Mongolia to Mexico and from Iceland to South Africa. No one is left untouched. It has become a pandemic by now.

The impact of climate change on migration is evolving each year. One such region experiencing significant changes is the US-Mexico border, where thousands of migrants arrive after traversing the “Darien Gap”, risking their lives in the journey from Central America to the US. This route is considered one of the world’s most perilous migration paths, where many migrants, including the weak, elderly, children, and women, lose their lives due to treacherous pathways and various natural hazards. Consequently, many of these migrants find it challenging to realise their coveted “American Dream” in reality.

Media reports and migration experts have been issuing warnings about the substantial increase in migrants to the US from poor, impoverished, and rapidly climate-changing Central American nations. The trend since 2010 is particularly alarming. In 2022, almost 2,50,000 people made the crossing, driven by economic and humanitarian disasters —nearly double the figures from the previous year and 20 times the annual average from 2010 to 2020. Early data for 2023 indicates a six fold increase, with 87,390 people making the trek from January to March compared to 13,791 the previous year (Walsh et al., 2023). This underscores the serious consideration of the Darien Gap by migrants seeking a brighter future in their homeland.

Another group of nations especially vulnerable to climate change is Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Fiji, etc. These countries face a daunting task in adjusting to the dynamics of climate change, particularly during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic slowdown in SIDS is compelling more people to migrate or abandon their native places, exacerbated by changing environmental conditions. Therefore, the 38 member states and 22 associate states designated as SIDS by the UN constitute a unique crisis, termed a “sink or swim” paradox, unlike other poor developing nations.

Environmental scientists and climate experts note that these states collectively contribute to less than one per cent of global carbon emissions. Despite their minimal contribution, the catastrophic effects of abnormal environmental changes render them virtually uninhabitable.

Therefore, SIDS are seeking avenues to raise awareness of their plight and gain global support, particularly financial assistance to urgently combat the climate crisis. Indeed, the recent call for a “loss and damage” fund established at the COP-27 summit in 2022 could be one way to address climate disasters in developing nations, including SIDS. The issue of loss and damage is crucial for many developing nations, as they bear the brunt of environmental damages caused by advanced or developed nations. Loss refers to irretrievable losses such as human lives or the loss of species, while damages indicate things that are harmed but can be repaired or restored, such as roads and sea walls. This fund is expected to have a significant impact on climate refugees and their rehabilitation in the future.

What kind of policies could alleviate this issue? The realistic solution is to ensure that we no longer pollute and produce goods and services. However, this is not entirely feasible. What we can collectively do is reduce the level of consumption and, ultimately, our greed in all aspects of life.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has been working with a long-term vision to address the issue of refugees, especially climate-displaced people. Currently, the UNHCR is engaged in 130 country operations, with regional wings spread across the world and its headquarters in Geneva. It is also focusing on 22 countries of high concern until 2026.

To tackle the climate refugee issue, the UNHCR is working towards a vision for the year 2030. This vision is firmly rooted in the UNHCR’s Strategic Directions of 2022-26 and aligned with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The vision states: “By 2030, an increasing number of forcibly displaced and stateless people, fleeing from climate-fueled crises and/or living in climate-vulnerable countries, find solutions, are protected and resilient to the impacts of climate change, and have the means to live self-sufficient lives.” This vision is based on the Strategic Action for Climate Action launched in 2020 by the UNHCR itself. However, the new Strategic Plan for Action 2024-30 provides a clear roadmap to address the issue of climate refugees. These objectives are:

A. People who are compelled to flee across borders due to persecution, violence, and human rights violations arising from the adverse effects of climate change disasters are protected and safe. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) aligns with governments, civil society organisations, academia, regional bodies, etc, to safeguard individuals who are victims of climate change.

B. Forcibly displaced and stateless people, along with their hosts, should have access to services promoting the sustainable use of natural resources and a clean, healthy environment. The primary objective here is to encourage governments and other entities to invest in environmentally sustainable public services for these displaced individuals.

C. People forced to flee, stateless individuals, and their hosts should be able to prepare for, withstand, recover from, and be protected against the impacts of climate change. This underscores that the UNHCR collaborates with host nations to ensure the protection and well-being of climate refugees, enabling them to lead safe lives.

D. The UNHCR aims to minimise its own negative impacts on the environment. To reduce carbon footprints, the UNHCR utilises solar panels at its offices and endeavours to make its fleet entirely green. Its use of renewable energy resources aligns with the UN’s broader commitment to “Greening the Blue”.

Thus, the UNHCR is taking numerous steps to mitigate the impact of climate change on environmentally displaced people worldwide. However, joint action is crucial, as the UNHCR alone cannot achieve this.

Migration is a global phenomenon, with climate-related displacement being the most tragic. People leave their native lands and indigenous resources to go to either completely unknown distant lands or, again, to some inhabitable lands. It is certain their future is not secure. They are more vulnerable than before. It is time to shift our focus from reaction to action. Climate change is making our lives vulnerable.

(The writers are Research Assistants at GRF)