India could overtake China as the world’s most populous country in the world and that too in the next two months. This projection has been given by none other than the UN Population Fund in its report. As per the report, India’s population is estimated to reach 142.86 crore by the middle of this year which is a bit more than that of China, i.e., 142.57 crore.
To reach such a conclusion, the demographers have put to use a variety of metrics like fertility and replacement rates, age and region-wise data. This is, therefore, an augmented method of calculation that gives better understanding of population dynamics as compared to the time when we launched our first family planning programme almost 70 years ago.
The UN report is in coherence with the data trend reflected in successive government studies and National Family Health Surveys and other government studies. The population projection given by the UN report is such despite the fact that the rate of population growth has slowed down considerably in the past 10 years.
It is also a fact that India’s total fertility rate, which indicates the number of children per woman had come down to 2 in 2020-2021 from about 3.4 in the early Nineties. But the UN Population Fund suggests that a TFR of 2.1 is something that is necessary for a country to maintain population stability and, of course, we are on the verge of achieving this if we continue to maintain the present rate in the next few years to come.
A careful analysis and understanding of demographics is important for designing a national policy for better population management aimed at harmonious growth and development in all walks of the national life.
According to the report, 68 per cent of India’s total population is between the ages of 15 and 64 years, which is considered as the working population of a country. About 25 per cent is between 0-14 years; 18 per cent between 10 and 19 years, 26 per cent between 10 and 24 years, and 7 per cent above 65 years.
Another UN report, World Population Prospects 2022, which was released in July last year, projected that India’s population would reach 166.8 crore by July 2022, going much beyond China’s declining population at 131.7 crore. Interestingly, in 1950, India’s population was at 86.1 crore. On the other hand, China’s population was at 114.4 crore. If the UN projections are to be believed, India’s population is very much expected to keep growing during next three decades, after which it will start declining.
The UN report states that “population anxieties have seeped into large portions of the general public”. In our case, xcept during the Emergency era, the successive governments have never resorted to forced sterilisation; on the other hand, the governments in India have largely relied on education, awareness and persuasion. However, in recent years, some coercive methods have been adopted like making people with more than two children ineligible for government jobs. If experts are to be believed, such practices must be curbed. The UN report quite aptly states, “Global experience shows family planning targets can lead to… coercion of women”. So, in parts of the country like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Meghalaya, where the TFR is ahead of the national average the respective State Governments must follow the wiser methods of women empowerment by focusing on investing in their education and healthcare.
It is a fact that two-thirds of the country’s total population is in between the ages of 15 and 64. For using the demographic dividend to its advantage in next 20-25 years, we have to emphasise and heavily invest in education, skill development and creating opportunities, especially for the youths of underprivileged sections and women.
What is more concerning is the discouragingly poor participation of women in the labour force. According to the World Bank data, the female labour participation in India has gone down from 32 per cent in 2005 to 19 per cent in 2021. And this can be attributed to be the most significant factor for the country being quiet sluggish in taking advantage of its humungous working-age population when compared to other countries.
It is quite obvious that to bank on the opportunities and to properly address challenges that this unique population growth brings with it there will be a lot of dissent and debate. As the world’s most populous country, we need to design our policies to meaningfully engage our population in a way that can lead to an overall national development.
(The writer is an Addl. Central Government Standing Counsel, CAT, Cuttack Bench, Consulting Editor-Legal Affairs and Public Policy, The Pioneer, Bhubaneswar and a Distinguished Adjunct Professor of Law and Media Studies, School of Mass Communication, KIIT University. Views are personal)
