The bypoll to Ghosi assembly seat in Mau district is all set to witness direct contest between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party as the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party have decided to stay away from the by-election.
The bypoll will be held on September 5. It has been necessitated following the resignation of sitting SP MLA Dara Singh Chauhan, who joined the BJP in July. The BJP has fielded Chauhan while former MLA Sudhakar Singh is leading the charge for the SP.
As the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc of opposition parties vie with each other on the national political stage, the bypoll to Ghosi assembly seat will be among the initial big battles between the two sides.
Over half a dozen ministers of the BJP government in UP, along with leaders from allied parties Apna Dal (Sonelal) and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) had accompanied Dara Singh Chauhan when he filed his nomination papers on Wednesday last week.
The Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal has announced to campaign for the SP, while the Congress, which is taking the lead in the opposition talks through INDIA, has not yet officially declared support for the SP. However, leaders say that not fielding a candidate is a message in itself. A Congress leader said that the party “will be fulfilling the spirit of alliance to defeat the BJP”.
The Congress has been a marginal player in Ghosi and it received only 0.78 per cent votes in the 2022 assembly polls. The BJP and SP have been key players, with contests between the two being neck-and-neck. In 2022, the SP secured 42.21 per cent of the votes and the BJP’s vote share was 33.57 per cent.
There was a tight contest in the 2019 bypoll too that was held after BJP MLA Phagu Chauhan vacated the Ghosi assembly seat following his appointment as the governor of Bihar. Rajbhar won the subsequent election with 31.24 per cent votes while Sudhakar Singh, then an independent backed by the SP, got 30.43 per cent of the polled votes.
The absence of the BSP, which has a popular base in the region over the years and has secured significant vote share, has intrigued political observers. In the 2022 assembly polls, the BSP candidate had polled 21 per cent of the polled votes and finished third. In the 2019 bypoll, the BSP had received 23 per cent votes.
The BJP is going all out for the campaign in this constituency but Chauhan is facing some resistance from some sections of the ruling party. The main point of contention is his defection to the SP last year before the assembly elections.
According to sources in the BJP, some Chauhan (OBC) leaders in Ghosi do not want the rise of Dara Singh Chauhan as an Other Backward Class face. Some workers are also upset with the party’s decision to ignore dedicated workers and give the ticket to party hopper Dara Singh Chauhan.
Given the close contests of the past, the BJP hopes to capitalise on the OBC votes in the constituency Chauhan can attract. Ghosi has 60,000 Rajbhar voters, 50,000 Chauhan (Nonia OBC) and 40,000 Yadav voters. There are 60,000 Dalits and 90,000 Muslims.
Muslims will certainly support the SP candidate because the BSP and the Congress are not contesting the bypoll. In that situation, Dalit voters are likely to play a significant role in the outcome of the bypoll, a political observer said.
