Maldives is drifting away from India and tilting towards China and Türkiye 

India’s close ally in the Indian Ocean region, a country with which it shares maritime boundaries seems favourably tilting towards China under its newly elected president Dr Mohammed Muizzu.

Maldives and India have had a warm relationship so far, bolstered by Mr Muizzu’s predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who was widely seen to be favourably inclined to India. Two incidents have triggered fresh concerns about this ally of India in the Indian Ocean region.

First, in one of his foreign visits after being president, Mr Muizzu chose to visit Türkiye and establish an embassy in Ankara. The press release from the president’s office reasoned it out as “the Maldives importing many essential commodities used in daily life and other important items from Türkiye and as part of additional efforts to encourage Turkish investment in the Maldives and export Maldivian goods. Furthermore, the number of Maldivian students studying in Türkiye for higher education and the Maldivian tourists travelling to Türkiye are increasing rapidly. ”

Second, Maldives sent its vice president Hussain Mohamed Latheef to China sponsored China-Indian Ocean Region Forum on Development Cooperation(IORFDC), while ignoring any concurrent gesture in a similar forum the Indian Ocean Rim Association ( IORA), earlier.

The Vice president during his address to the IORFDC made a special mention regarding developing closer relations with China. The press release stated “China has been crucial to the Maldives' recent development and highlighted the two countries' solid shared commitment to a people-centric strategy, aiming to promote social development, peace, and prosperity.” He added that the recently inaugurated President of the Maldives, HE Dr Mohamed Muizzu, and his administration are dedicated to fortifying the long-standing relations between China and the Maldives, built upon the foundation of mutual respect and shared goals.

Now both of these events, when looked at from an India angle, raise concerns, as both Turkey and China have not been favourable towards India’s unique security interests, on land and the ocean. To be sure, there has been an anti-India rhetoric brewing in Maldives for the last few years, accentuated more so during Mr Muizzu’s noisy political campaign. The anti-India campaign shot to prominence in 2020, primarily due to a minor Indian military presence in Maldives. However, it was enough for the opposition parties to raise it as a cause of concern against the sovereignty of this strategic island country. Almost two decades back a similar sentiment was echoed across Male and other neighbouring islands dotting the Indian Ocean, under the then leader Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, who along with his colleagues had indulged in Anti India sloganeering, to curry favours from China. Maldives is strategically located in the busy Indian Ocean maritime trade route and its geography makes it a strategic location for any country, wanting to have a reasonable say on maritime geopolitics. The presence of a few Indian military personnel to man some aerial stations from a security perspective for the island country, has created a rift in the India-Maldives bilateral.

Mr Muizzu and Indian PM Narendra Modi met up in Dubai, on the sidelines of the high-level climate summit. On his return from Dubai he said “Even in my first meeting after taking the oath of office, I communicated very clearly that we do not want foreign military troops in Maldives... In all our communications, India has agreed to accommodate this”.

The Indian press release post the meeting of the leaders did not mention any of the pricky issues even though in an earlier social media post Mr Modi had indicated respecting the democratic decision of the citizens of Maldives, meaning, India may be willing to work with Muizzu government and let not the bilateral relationship sail away. India has so far maintained its neighbourhood-first approach and looks like it is willing to continue its down-south approach.

(The writer is a policy analyst, views are personal)