Assembly polls outcome in five states may impact 2024 Lok Sabha polls as it would reveal if the strategies employed by the political parties worked to their advantage
Now battle lines have been drawn between NDA and I.N.D.I.A to establish supremacy in the ensuing five state assemblies though the former is ahead of the latter in releasing some lists of candidates which seems to be part of a well-thought strategy. Some writers are dubbing it as ‘Semifinal’ to 2024 whereas others differ which makes no difference as voters will have a final say in deciding this qualm.
By any stretch of the imagination, none can contest the logic of relevance of the outcome of five state-bound polls in creating a narrative that will influence the psyche of the voters during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP high command and the top brass of RSS have made a conscious decision by opting for Prime Minister, Narendra Modi as the face of the party and refraining from naming chief ministerial candidates in poll-bound states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram.
Based on a different analogy, BJP has experimented with a new strategy of fielding 24 MPs and 4 union ministers in three poll-bound states including MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh which reflects the saffron party’s ‘desperate move and resolve’ to ensure victory in these states to create a better narrative for 2024 parliamentary polls. 2nd, it may be aimed at ‘neutralizing’ the anguish of the voters with sitting MLAs and they may have to rethink when new faces are fielded from such constituencies.
Well-planned strategy: Political observers say that the party's strategists may have a twin purpose in opting for innovative methodology. First, Modi is a vote catcher, who has got a national and international image that could be exploited to woo the voters. Second, due to the presence of several aspirants for the top slot and as a preventive step to check factionalism and desertions, the BJP might have refrained from naming one candidate for the post of CM in each state.
Entry of Ministers and MPs : To checkmate sitting CM, Shivraj Chouhan, the BJP high command surprised its ministers like Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel and Faggan Singh Kulaste who figured in the first list of candidates for MP polls. As per party calculations, union ministers may have their influence across the state though they have yet to prove their statewide appeal amongst the people. Questions being asked whether they have nursed their respective assembly segments which is so essential to defeat the rivals? Political observers believe that ministers normally focus on bigger areas and hardly deal with a particular segment in their home states which may create problems for them. One can deny the fact that voters spread over right up to villages have become more demanding as well as conscious of their right to make logical decisions. The aspirations of unemployed youths are very high besides skyrocketing prices of essential goods etc. hence they may see a track record of five years of every candidate before exercising their franchise.
Experts say that the ministers or MPs hardly do micro-level management of particular constituencies which should worry them in MP. They may not have the state-level stature when compared with Chouhan.
Ignoring the risk factors: Political observers feel that if BJP fails to oust Congress in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and C.S. Rao’s ‘Bharat Rashtra Samithi’(BRS) in Telangana besides losing MP then it may have a direct bearing on the 2024 parliamentary elections in 2024. But in case the results go in favour of BJP then it may have a double impact to ensure the victory of Modi for the third successive time. But contrary to it, there is no denying the fact that assembly polls are fought on local issues and voters may be swayed owing to freebies being distributed by CMs of Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana besides being dispersed by CM of BJP-ruled MP. The political dynamics may be different when Modi appeals to the voters in the country to vote for him in 2024 and subsequently I.N.D.I.A fails to decide the PM candidate which would be attributed to inner contradictions and personal ambition of each regional satrap as well as that of the Grand Old Party.
Raje loyalists are sidelined: In Rajasthan, the ground reports say that ministers like Ganjendra Singh Shekhawat, Ashwani Vaishnav, Arjun Ram Meghwal and even former union minister Rajyavardhan Rathore do not have grassroots-level mass appeal like Raje in Rajasthan. Diya Kumari, a member of ex ruling family of Jaipur, is a sitting MP from Rajsamand and will be contesting from the Vidhayadhar Nagar segment in the pink city which was being represented by Narpat Singh Rajvi, son-in-law of late Octogenarian, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. At the same time, Meena community leader, Rajya Sabha MP, Dr Kirori Lal Meena may prove an asset in the eastern region of Rajasthan as he will contest from the Sawai Madhopur seat, dominated by Meena-Gujjar communities. BJP kept Raje in political oblivion for five years which has alienated the ex-CM from party workers to some extent though she still has got maximum number of loyalist MLAs. Raje was missing from BJP’s ‘Parivartan Yatras’ even in her home turf, Jhalawar in Kota district where she wields immense influence which can be attributed to her long association with people. BJP could not play the role of an aggressive opposition during the 5-year regime of Ashok Gehlot as high command kept on experimenting with younger generation leaders Chhattisgarh is a tough call for the BJP: It will be Baghel versus Baghel in Chhattisgarh which is considered the strongest turf of the Congress due to the leadership of Bhupesh Baghel. The India Today-CVoter survey has predicted that BJP may narrow the gap by five per cent but it may not be sufficient to block Congress from surpassing the majority mark of 46 seats. BJP has named CM’s nephew Vijay Baghel, Lok Sabha MP as a candidate for the top slot. BJP’s Chhattisgarh unit could not put the Baghel government on the mat during the entire 5-year term which may give an advantage to Congress to retain power. Former CM Raman Singh does not figure in the scheme of things of high command. Ahead of the assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, BJP leader and former Rajya Sabha MP Ranvijay Pratap Singh Judeo, the present Raja of the erstwhile Jashpur state, has expressed his desire to resign from organizational posts but asserted his commitment to not quitting BJP.
Telangana: Poised to witness a fierce battle While toying with the new idea of relying on the ‘Charisma’ of union ministers or MP, BJP high command has given the command of state unit to union minister, G Kishan Reddy who faces a big challenge of bringing the party on track which is faction-ridden. The removal of Bandi Sanjay Kumar who was vociferous against the KCR government has not sent the right signal to the party cadres though the party denies it. BJP’s ‘Gujarat Model’ of replacing older generation leaders yielded positive results in Uttarakhand, Goa and Tripura but it miserably failed to deliver in Karnataka. Now it will be interesting to see whether the new strategy to push ministers and MPs into the electoral fray will work to the advantage of the party or it will backfire.
(The writer is a political analyst and senior journalist; views are personal)
