Nawaz returns after four years to a grand welcome while bete noire Imran licks his wounds

As they say, three ‘A’s decide the fate of Pakistan – Army, America and Allah! Depending upon who they smile upon, the beneficiary gets to live in Aiwan-e-Sadr, or Presidential Palace, in Islamabad. As general elections approach early next year, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been in self-imposed exile in the UK, has returned to a grand welcome after he was granted protective bail in corruption cases. His return has not only ignited fervour within his party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), it also holds significant implications for the country's politics. Nawaz's return has been nothing short of a grand spectacle; the PML-N has spared no effort in making this a memorable homecoming for their leader. The display of strength and unity within the party sends a strong message to the electorate, asserting its enduring influence. Nawaz last came to power in 2013 and, at the time, it appeared as though he might become the first Prime Minister of Pakistan to complete a full term but that was still not to be. The graft cases did him in. His Government faced several challenges, including an Opposition-led blockade in Islamabad that led to political and economic turmoil. Furthermore, as his relationship with the all-powerful Pakistan Army changed and allegations of corruption and graft surfaced, Nawaz found himself ousted from office. He has not set foot in Pakistan since leaving for London in 2019 to receive medical treatment while serving a 14-year prison sentence for corruption.

His convictions remain in force, but a court has barred authorities from arresting him until Tuesday when he is to appear in court. Nawaz's ouster paved the way for Imran Khan to take the helm as Pakistan's Prime Minister. However, today the PML-N, under Nawaz's leadership, again comes across as a formidable political force in Pakistan. His return may energise the party's base and significantly influence the upcoming elections. Nawaz's reappearance could intensify the power struggle among political parties, particularly with the Imran-led Tehreek-e-Insaf. Nawaz's biggest headache would be the graft cases, which will continue to be a focal point for political debate and legal battle. Perhaps to circumvent this, he has named his daughter as his political heir. Though he cannot run for or hold public office because of his convictions, his legal team says he plans to appeal. Nawaz's return will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the future of the nation's governance. Imran, who was forced out of power through a no-confidence vote, is embroiled in serious court cases. Ostensibly, he fell from the graces of the Army and America but his political clout has surged. But right now, Nawaz looks like Pakistan's Man Friday. He could not have returned without a covert deal with the Army, which wants to keep Imran out of power. He is also striking the right chord when he says that Pakistan must engage with India for its own progress. Now who would be blessed by Allah in the next elections is difficult to say without seeing Pakistan Army intercepts or an American embassy fax from Islamabad!