Male should not be apprehensive about making Delhi closer than Beijing. President-elect Muizzu must understand that China’s engagement is a long trap. Many of African and Latin American nations are fast falling into this trap by accepting financial assistance from China. All of them should be aware that China’s new partnership model is purely opaque and not time tested.
The recent election results in the Maldives might change India’s bonhomie with the archipelago. The President-elect Mohamed Muizzu, the winning candidate for the PNC-PPM coalition, was earlier a Mayor of the capital city of Male. In last Saturday’s run-off election, Muizzu defeated incumbent President Ibrahim Solih, commonly known as Ibu of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), by 19,000 votes or an 8 per cent margin.
The Opposition parties in the Maldives branded Solih’s India leaning or the “India-first” policy as a direct threat to the island nation’s sovereign status. China’s long arm of influence through money, muscle power and wolf-warrior diplomacy are a real threat for India. With Chinese President Xi Jinping at the helm of affairs since 2012, China is all out to encircle India in its neighbourhood through its infamous “String of Pearls” policy. For years, the Maldives has remained under the strong influence of India. But Xi’s aggressive plan for the expansion of China’s influence through the historic Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has finally reached the Maldives, a country of just around 400,000 people. It is spread over 1,200 islands in 90,000 square miles which crisscrosses key trade routes wherein both India and China vie for control and influence. Abdullah Yameen, the former President of the Maldives first took initiatives to move closer to China.
The new President-elect Muizzu has come out tough on India. He has clearly revealed his soft corner for China. From the “India First” policy of the Solih regime, Muizzu may shift towards better friendly ties with China. He has already stated in public that “the people have decided and don’t want Indian troops to stay in the Maldives. Therefore, foreign soldiers can’t be here against our sentiments, against our will”.
Thus, it is clear that naval and air force personnel stationed on the Addu and Lammu Islands since 2013 to maintain and operate two helicopters and Dornier aircraft that India had given to the Maldives for reconnaissance operations have to be called back now. Currently a total of 75 Indian military personnel are there in these islands as per the record of the Maldivian National Defence Force. Again, the fate of the construction of a coast guard harbour base at the Uthuru Thila Falhu atoll, inaugurated by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in May 2023, is uncertain. It is pertinent to mentioned here that an MoU signed by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with the Maldivian Defence Minister on maritime security in February 2021 was at the centre of the Opposition protest in that country. For the Opposition, this is a secret agreement signed with India by compromising the country’s sovereignty. These issues are very sensitive and Muizzu must look into them before taking any action.
But why does the Maldives matter to India? Yes, it does seriously matter to India. First of all, the island nation is situated at a crucial location in the Arabian Sea region of the Indian Ocean and India shares a sea border with that country. The island country is very near to India. It is just 70 nautical miles from the Minicoy Islands or locally known as Maliku in Lakshadweep and 300 nautical miles from the West coast of India.
Secondly, it is situated at the centre of the commercial sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean. Third, so far India has a preeminent position in that country, almost virtually spreading its influence over the entire nation.
Fourth, it is truly critical for maintaining regional political stability and security. Fifth, the Maldives, irrespective of its size and global influence, holds the key to important shipping lanes that continuously provide energy supply to three big economies of the region: India, Japan and China. Sixth, it is also an important member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) where India is the most dominant among all. Finally, it lies in the Indian Ocean through which major trade lanes of the globe pass. And India being a world power and now being the fifth largest economy of the world, will definitely have an eye over all its neighbours so as to build constant communication and grow trade ties with them.
For long, the Maldives have become another battleground for two neighbouring regional giants: India and China. Clearly, it is one of South Asia’s many nations that have been maintaining closer ties with both Beijing and Delhi. However, India has a deeper historical, cultural and economic tie with the Maldives than China does. The MEA rightly states that “India and the Maldives share ethnic, linguistic, cultural, religious and commercial links steeped in antiquity. The relations have been close, cordial and multi-dimensional. India was among the first to recognise Maldives after its independence in 1965 and to establish diplomatic relations with that country.”
This shows how India shares an enduring relationship with the archipelago nation. Again, in 1988, the bilateral engagement flourished between the two countries, when India launched the “Operation Cactus” to abort a coup attempt by a group of Maldivians to depose the government of then President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. The coup was led by a businessman called Abdullah Luthufi who took help of the armed mercenaries of the Sri Lankan Tamil secessionist organisation People’s Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE).
The irony is that Gayoom approached several other countries like Sri Lanka, Singapore, Pakistan, the US and the UK for immediate help to thwart the coup. When all of them refused, then UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher advised Gayoom to ask India for help. India quickly restored the status quo and brought back stability in the neighbourhood. But today, political scenario in the island nation has completely changed as China has started engaging the political leadership of the Maldives. This has become a cause of concern for India because China has simply found a secured place for both its investment and military expansion (probably in near future) right at the former’s backyard.
The cordiality in bilateral relations continued between India and the Maldives during the country’s first democratically elected government in 2008. But with the coming of Abduallah Yameen coming to power in 2013, India’s relationship with the island country sharply spiralled downwards. He was famous for attacking democracy, raising the anti-India banner and advocating proximity to Beijing. His only intention was to arouse nationalist sentiment to lessen Delhi’s influence over the country. However, when Solih came to power in 2018, once again India-Maldives relations cemented towards better partnership and development.
It is Delhi’s turn now to engage the island nation. Meanwhile, the Indian High Commissioner to Male, Munnu Mahawar, has already met Muizzu and handed over a letter from Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulating him on his election victory. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has stated that Delhi will look forward to engaging the new establishment in Male on all fronts. It is certain that the power balance between the two Asian giants Indian and China may change with the election of Muizzu. The fact is that India and China are already facing serious troubles in their bilateral relationship because of border disputes. And this came out in the open when Xi refused to attend the latest G-20 summit hosted by India last month.
Male should not be apprehensive about making Delhi closer than Beijing. Muizzu must understand that China’s engagement is a long trap. Many of African and Latin American nations are fast falling into this trap by accepting financial assistance from China. All of them should be aware that China’s new partnership model is purely opaque and not time tested. Unlike the American or the global liberal ties, Chinese one is more of an intervention and a sharp attack on the former. China has been facing serious problems with its own regions like Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and most prominently, Taiwan (an island that does not accept China’s suzerainty, though it is mentioned as Chinese Taipei in international lexicon for various purposes). Especially, the smaller, poorer and island nations like the Maldives should be extremely cautious while engaging with authoritarian regimes like China.
It is better for President-elect Muizzu to take a quick decision on how to reorient India-Maldives bilateral relations before it is too late. His tenure should not be started with a negative note. Both Male and Delhi need each other. They should forge ahead with mutual understanding and trust. Both the countries need to collaborate to fight larger challenges in regard to transnational crimes, humanitarian disasters and natural calamities in the coming days.
(The writer is currently president of the Global Research Foundation)
