India has a large workforce and higher economic growth. It must take advantage of this opportunity to assert itself in 2024 on world stage
Nostradamus, a French seer and astrologer, predicted five hundred years ago that in 2024, severe flooding due to climate change would occur. He also foretold significant economic, environmental, political, and social changes. He predicted conflicts with China and war in the Middle East and that there would be a new Pope in the Vatican and a new King in England.
As 2024 approaches, it's time to reflect on the past and anticipate the future for the world, especially India. Next year, more than 40 countries, including seven with large populations, are scheduled to hold national elections, potentially leading to significant changes in leadership.
The face-off between President Biden and his predecessor, Trump, is one of the most significant of our time. President Putin is seeking his fifth term in Russia's presidential election. President Zelensky may run for re-election in Ukraine, while two female candidates are vying for the Mexican presidency.
The 2024 Olympic Games have been scheduled to take place in Paris from July 26 to August 11. The opening ceremony will be held on boats carrying athletes down the Seine River instead of in a stadium. Banknotes featuring King Charles III's picture will soon be circulated. Mobile phones have been banned from schools in the Netherlands. As the BJP promised, the Ram temple's inauguration in Ayodhya is scheduled for the start of the new year. Article 370 has been revoked, and now the focus is on reaching a consensus on the Uniform Civil Code. The Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, will present the annual budget on February 1.
The 2024 Lok Sabha election will be crucial for PM Modi's political future. The result will impact Rahul Gandhi's leadership in Congress and test the Opposition's unity. It will also be an opportunity for the BJP to gain support in the South and hold on to its importance in the North. Assembly elections in eight states will be held next year, including Jammu and Kashmir. Opposition parties have been dissatisfied with recent election outcomes. The Congress and other Opposition parties have agreed to join forces and counter the BJP's resources, leadership, and organization.
The US economy is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. However, the growth rate is predicted to slow, leading to a mild recession in 2024. Reuters says the global growth rate will decline from 2.9% to 2.6% next year. India's economy is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2024, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world for the third consecutive year due to the country's resilience and reduced vulnerability to external shocks. The International Monetary Fund predicts India's growth rate to be over 6% in 2023 and 2024, surpassing China's 4-5% growth rate.
By 2030-31, India is expected to have a GDP of $6.7 trillion, becoming the world's third-largest economy behind the US and China. The education, healthcare, IT, and PLI industries may grow significantly. Concerns include political instability, inflation, talent shortages, cyberattacks, climate change, and changing work styles. India's position as a global power and leader of the South is confirmed by its leadership at the G20 summit in 2023. The next summit will take place in Rio de Janeiro.
The Quad leaders' summit, planned to be held in New Delhi in January, has been postponed to a later date in 2024. Additionally, the CHOGM meeting is also scheduled to take place in 2024. Modi's "Neighbourhood First" strategy establishes cooperative regional frameworks for promoting regional peace and development. Elections to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will be significant next year.
The US-India relationship is improving steadily, and policies could remain unchanged despite election results. Officials from both countries will continue to collaborate to promote a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region through the 2+2 mechanism. The two nations cooperate in various fields, including space, defence, security, clean energy, multilateral collaboration, and people-to-people ties. Additionally, India and the US have announced their plans to send an Indian astronaut to the International Space Station by the year 2022.
Automation will shape the future with the help of technology. Millions of jobs will be replaced by Artificial Intelligence (AI). Doctors will use AI to diagnose diseases, and robots will make coffee.
During FY 2022-23, India's trade with the US reached a total of USD USD 128.55bn, making the US India's biggest trading partner. India sold USD 78.31 billion worth of goods to the US and bought USD 50.24 billion from them.
India wants to expand its defence relationships with the West. It is neutral on the Ukraine war. PM Modi expressed shock over the Israel-Hamas conflict and stands with Israel. India is now the world's most populous country, which can lead to a larger workforce and higher economic growth. India must take advantage of this opportunity for higher economic development. In 2024, we will encounter both challenges and opportunities. To tackle these challenges and make the most of opportunities, it's essential to stay focused, be adaptable, and face challenges with courage.
(The writer is a popular columnist, views are personal)
