It is in the best interest of the region that politically stable governments get elected
It is an interesting and maybe, high decibel political noise time in India’s neighbourhood, with almost all its neighbours and Bharat going for general elections in 2024. While domestic politics do not impact diplomatic relationships it is a different game when it comes to India and its neighbours.
India is deeply engaged with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka on many fronts and all of them are going in for elections next year. All three of them also have to balance out their relations with China, vis a vis India, to maintain stability in their domestic economies, while not compromising on their long-term bilateral relationship with India. Bangladesh with which India shares an extremely intimate geographical embrace, is the first one to go into polls in the first two weeks of the new year.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who shares an excellent relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has ruled the country for fifteen years and is almost certain to return to power for the fourth time. Bangladesh is one of the most crucial allies India has in the region and both have serious stakes in maintaining a free open rules-based Indo-Pacific region. Bangladesh geographically sits in a critical part of the Indian Ocean serving as an important port of transit. Its geographic location and proximity to many Indian northeastern states allow it to provide a crucial land route for trade, and human movement connecting the northeastern part of India to South East Asia and beyond.
Prime ministers of both countries had a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit held in Delhi in September. In a press statement, both parties mentioned “the operationalization of the Agreement on the use of the Chattogram and Mongla Ports and commissioning of the India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline”. They also expressed appreciation for the operationalization of the settlement of bilateral trade in INR and encouraged the business community on both sides to utilize the mechanism. They looked forward to beginning negotiations on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), covering trade in goods, services, and protecting and promoting investment.
Last month Bangladesh and India inaugurated three critical fracture projects including “The Akhaura - Agartala Cross-Border Rail Link; Khulna - Mongla Port Rail Line; and Unit – II of the Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant where India promised to invest nearly $2bn in Bangladesh.” China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner and India comes a distant second. India is aware that a stable reliable democratic partner is India’s best bulwark against an aggressive, money-pushing autocratic dragon, waiting to push any boundaries to press India more on its strategic borders.
Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was delivering a foreign policy outlook for India in the new century to business leaders at an industry association event. He said “The nature of how trading rules have been implemented over the last two to three decades actually has raised a lot of question marks about its effectiveness and the credibility of the regime. A large part of my attention, the economic side of my attention, is very much on how we deal with the world economically, how we support our businesses, how we support our consumers, how we increase our employment”. With no direct references to the ongoing and upcoming dance of democracies in India and its neighbourhood, it is essential to continue the bilateral dialogue on strategic interests even though it may get subdued under the shrill noise of campaigns. It may be worth mentioning that India’s not-so-friendly neighbour Pakistan also faces a general election next year and it is in India’s best interest that they too get a stable government.
(The writer is a political analyst, views are personal)
