India has to keep working on its relationship with other partners amid changing geopolitics
India concluded a high-level meeting with two QUAD partners last fortnight. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was in Delhi a few days back andAustralia's Scott Morrison had high-level virtual meetings. India and Australia also decided to elevate their bilateral relationship to an annual summit, where both Prime Ministerswill exchange visits to supervise the progress in the relationship. After Japan and Russia, the Australian annual bilateral summit is the third India has in its bouquet of developing closer relations with like-minded partners. It is worthwhile mentioning that Japan and Australia form the foundational pillars of the QUAD framework and are geographically located in the Indo Pacific, where the next theatre of supremacy is playing out. India has done well to highlight to both QUAD partners its priorities in the Indo-Pacific. An aggressiveChina, gobbling up or creating new military bases in the Indo-Pacific, threatening sovereign rights of nations such as Taiwan and encroaching in India's territory and neighbourhood besides militarily monitoring the sea routes, with least concern for globally accepted rules-based world order, are shared regional concerns for India, Japan and Australia. Australia knows it has to depend on regional allies and partners if it wants to take on China in its backyard. Its defence alliance with Japan also known as the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) assumes significance in this context. Australia has also recently entered into a military alliance with the US and the UKwhich provides it access to nuclear-capable submarines.There are many lessons for Indian policy makers in India to learn. First, the US-centricity of the regional order is shrinking fast. Japan, which has traditionally relied on the US for its security needs, is willing to pick up the gauntlet and lead in the region. A signal has been sent to smaller economies in the region that Japan will stand up against Chinese aggression and establish a rules-based regional order, as an empowered independent player. Similarly, Australia with its bitter experiences with China has quickly gone ahead to forge new trade and securitypacts with major partners in Europe, the US,the UK, India and Southeast Asia. China,meanwhile, has announced a "no barriers" friendship with Russia. As the world order reshapes, post-Ukraine crisis, and a hardening of stances by NATO, the situation for Russiaappears unfavourable. The bite of western sanctions, together with frosty diplomatic and strategic relationships on world platforms, will make Russia more dependent on China. This could also mean India landing in embarrassingpositions when the Russia question comes up. India at this stage will have to calculate its security interests to suit its strategic and economic goalposts. Except for severe dependence on Russia formilitaryequipment, India doesnot have any significant ties with Russia. Over four decades of close bonding between Russia and India, where each side chose not to step into each other's sensitive spots on international fora, may be a ghost of the Cold war once the entire fallout of the Ukraine invasion playsout. India will have to carefully calibrate its place in the changing geopolitics and choose its partners. India and US have a strategic partnership for nearly a decade now. However, India's unwillingness to take a hard stance on Russia publicly could make several lawmakers in the US questionthe foundations of the relationship. The world, despite ideological differences, cannot ignore the US and its strategic importance as a large superpower. India has to keep working on its relationship with the USfor a free,open, transparent, rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. Separate bilateral agreements with QUAD partners such as Australia and Japan would also help.
(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expressed are personal.)