Without urgent steps to reduce emissions resulting in global warming, India’s reduced rice and wheat production could cause a decline of 1.8 per cent to 3.4 per cent of the GDP, while epidemiological risks from vector-borne diseases like dengue and Zika will increase.
G20 nations’ economies too will face a dent in their economies with damage of up to 81 billion euros and a loss of 15 per cent of farmers’ incomes by 2050, said a new report G20 Climate Impacts Atlas.
The report comes two days ahead of the G20 summit in Rome on October 30 and 31. The G20 countries include the US, European countries and Australia among a few others.
The report from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) said that without any improvement in coastal protection or infrastructure, in a low emissions scenario, projected infrastructure losses can amount to 121.5 billion EUR by mid-century and by 157.3 billion EUR in a high emission scenario.
Expected annual damages from riverine flooding by 2050 are estimated to be 376.4 billion EUR under a low emissions scenario and rise to 585.6 billion EUR under a high emissions scenario.
The authors of the report refer to three scenarios which are three different development pathways with different levels of greenhouse gas emissions-low, medium, and high.
Apart from economic losses in India, quality of life and health are likely to be severely impacted, the Atlas has highlighted. Under a low emissions scenario (emissions are substantially lower than in present) projected temperature variations will remain contained under 1.5 degree C, both by 2050 and 2100.
But by 2050 under a high emission scenario average temperature could rise to 2 degrees C and over 1.3 degrees C if there is marginal reduction in emissions or a medium emission pathway. Between 2036 and 2065, the maximum temperature of the warmest month in India could rise by at least 1.2 degrees C in a medium emission pathway and by over 1.7 degrees C in a business-as-usual or high emission scenario.
Annual rainfall is likely to record a steep increase by 2050 with an 8 per cent to 19.3 per cent increase in all emission scenarios.
India’s marine exclusive economic zone (EEZ) has mostly warm coastal waters with a mosaic of ecosystems such as coral reefs, backwaters, mangroves, and seagrass meadows which makes it particularly vulnerable, suggests the Atlas. Sea surface temperatures will increase by over 1.2 to 1.5 degrees C by 2050 while Ph levels, chlorophyll, oxygen levels in marine EEZ will reduce substantially in all emission scenarios. Chlorophyll is an indicator of the biomass available at the base of the marine food web supporting all ecosystem productivity.
“Fish catch is also likely to reduce by 8.8 per cent to 17.1 per cent by 2050. Under a medium emissions scenario, the population exposed to the annual coastal flood level is expected to increase from 17 million to 21 million by 2050,” the report noted.
Under a medium emissions scenario, 98.1 per cent of the population will be at risk of transmission-suitable mean temperatures for dengue by 2050, whereas 97 per cent will be at risk under a high emissions scenario. In the case of Zika, 97.2 per cent of the population will be at risk by 2050 under medium emissions.
“Among the G20, India is lagging behind in the process of transformation of its energy sector; in particular, the country is at the bottom of the ranking for what regards the ‘efficiency’ composite, which takes into account transmission and distribution losses of the electricity grid, the level of energy intensity of the economy and the access to clean cooking services,” the Atlas noted.
