The manner in which India manoeuvres its role on the Afghanistan issue in UNSC is critical

World television and social media channels were flooded with images of a nation being taken down one infrastructure at a time, as the takeover of Afghanistan by Taliban is underway. Hundreds of Afghans desperate to latch on to an aeroplane taking off from Kabul. A silent prayer for hundreds of young girls whose teachers bid them a tearful adieu as they may never have a chance of a formal education in Afghanistan. These are some of the images which will define the US President's career path and the emergence of China and conduit-state Pakistan acting as the external affairs division of any Taliban-led government. It does impact India in a big way, opening the country to a whole bunch of threats on the north west frontier boundaries, and casting a long shadow of terrorist activities inland. The Taliban takeover has played out to Pakistan’s rulebook, or, better still, Pakistan’s deep state script crafted perhaps in the military headquarters of Rawalpindi. It would be unwise to think that Taliban will immediately start  threatening and pushing out Hindu and Sikh minorities or train their terror divisions towards India. What is likely to happen is Pakistan playing a key role in shaping the global narrative on the new Taliban government by acting as its international mouthpiece and lobbyist. This fulfills Pakistan’s multiple strategic targets including its one upmanship on Kashmir. Pakistan’s deep stateis sure to leverage the long-standing relationship it has with Taliban to use non-state actors in its military actions in Indian territories including Kashmir, while trying to find peace with Pakistan Taliban and thereby bringing a temporary truce in some of its troubled districts. China, a key sponsor of Pakistan, will likely have far more access in Afghanistan which would need money to establish its sovereignty. This could be more than what China could have wished for, as an unhindered access to a war-torn country needing huge investments in critical infrastructure and rich in natural resources. It fits in well with its Belt and Road Initiative. Coming at time when the US is seen as having failed in the region, it can always project itself as the superpower, peace maker and humanitarian, thereby having a greater say in the world’s geo-political stage. Add to this China’s ally Pakistan shadow-controlling the Taliban government and their shared deep hatred for India, the entire Indian border comes under a direct threat from multiple aggressive regimes. Unofficially it is also being said that the hasty retreat of the US from Afghanistan has left a bounty of sophisticated military and surveillance equipment in the hands of people with selfish motives in the region. Pakistan and China, with sophisticated equipment accessible, can unleash a reign of terror in India, with intelligent inputs from some of the Indian Islamic fundamentalists, who till last week were languishing in prisons before the Taliban took over Kabul. One cannot forget the role of Russia is likely to play in the region, as like China it has also maintained its embassy operations in the troubled country and has unofficially given a green signal to the new government. The way the debate on Afghanistan movesin the UNSC, where India is currently the president, will be a crucial platform to watch out. Any consensus to legitimize the Taliban regime with careful maneuvering from India could define India’s moment in the UNSC. It has lots of groundwork to do, though. India has many strategic infrastructure investments in Afghanistanas well. India has to balance its approach in the region and find new regional allies who can influence the Taliban in a way beneficial to Indian interests.

(The writer is a policy analyst. The views expresses are personal.)