In theory, the transition will now be genuinely Afghan-owned, Afghan-led and Afghan-controlled. But how much of it will translate into reality?

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani and Chairman of High Council of National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah met US President Joe Biden last Friday at the White House, four days before the accelerated withdrawal of US troops by July 4, leaving behind 650 US combatants and 18,000 contractors for security of the US Embassy and counterterrorism missions. Biden has pledged to support the Afghan Government in diplomatic and humanitarian work as well as financially. Biden’s political, diplomatic, military and material support is open-ended coupled with the counsel that Afghans had to determine their own future: the transition in Afghanistan will now be genuinely Afghan-owned, Afghan-led and Afghan-controlled. Nato will coordinate with Turkish troops for Kabul airport’s security and training of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib has said Afghanistan does not need US troops but US combat support and logistics. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has said US will have very effective over-the-horizon counterterrorism capabilities from bases in Gulf and platforms at sea. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has declared that US will be able to deal with any threat to US emanating from Afghanistan from outside, though Taliban continues to maintain links with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

What some US officials have said about troop withdrawal is not very inspiring, least of all, CENTCOM C-in-C, Gen Frank McKenzie’s pessimism about Kabul’s capability of withstanding Taliban onslaught. But Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Mark Milley, sounds more hopeful: that 300,000 ANSF along with militia has the capability to hold fort. Director CIA, William Burns, says that US ability to collect intelligence and react to threats will diminish. Blinken too worries that the security situation would worsen, with Taliban making territorial gains.

On the ground, after May 1, the picture appears grim. US Special Envoy to Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, informed UNSC that 50 of 398 districts had fallen with fighting in 27 of 34 provinces. Taliban had launched its offensive after May 1, the original Trump deadline for troop withdrawal. Taliban’s strategy is to encircle a provincial capital — and capture it by taking districts around it. Kunduz province bordering Tajikistan is currently surrounded. It was captured in 2015 and again in 2016, damning a report by US Inspector General that Afghan troops were capable of independently defending provincial capitals. Six provincial capitals including Lashkar Gah (Helmand), Kandahar and Faryab are at imminent risk of falling. Lyons also noted that at places, Taliban won without firing a shot though in Faryab province, 22 elite commandoes under the local hero, Col Sohrab Azmi, were killed while retaking a district. ANSF has suffered huge casualties — 157 in one day alone in June, marking an overall increase in attrition of 30 per cent. Despite reports of Taliban undermining morale of ANSF, Afghan leadership is very confident that Kabul will not fall. Taliban are hailing troop withdrawal as victory in war. With a force of 80,000 to 100,000 fighters, it is definitely stronger than at any time since 2001. Taliban says it will not engage in dialogue with Kabul till foreign forces have left the soil of Islamic Emirate and any country providing bases to US will be considered an act of treachery. Taliban is determined to making maximum territorial gains as leverage before joining peace talks during the sensitive stage of transition when defending troops are vulnerable. US intelligence has forecast the fall of Kabul within six to 12 months, maximum two years.

CIA rates chances of Kabul Government surviving for two to three years if no power-sharing Government is formed. A report claiming Taliban can take 12 provincial capitals and hold them for one year certainly inflates their capability.

US Ambassador to UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said there is no military solution and any Government established by use of force will not be legitimate and not recognised. CIA had predicted the fall of Kabul within two weeks after Soviet withdrawal in 1989-90.

The Mujahideen attacked Jalalabad with help from ISI but failed to take it. President Najibullah held on for two years and Kabul caved in only when Soviet funding was stopped. What is the actual ground position is always difficult to decipher though at present it is advantage Taliban.

With foreign forces withdrawn, a new chapter will begin in Afghanistan. US withdrawal being unconditional is unarguably irresponsible, putting at risk gains of two decades of democracy. For the intra-Afghan dialogue to resume, the Taliban must be disabused of the notion that Kabul can be won militarily. The presence of 650 US soldiers and over-the-horizon support is considered a sufficient safety net not to invoke memories of Saigon in 1975. My hunch is Taliban will soon mount spectacular attacks in trying to capture one or two provincial capitals and offer to resume talks.

Whether a limited ceasefire will accompany is uncertain. But Taliban must be convinced that a power-sharing option is better than gambling for an unwinnable military solution. Taliban knows none of the regional powers, including Pakistan, will tolerate a military solution and an Islamic Emirate. Taliban’s Quetta Shura should accept what is being offered on a platter than risk plunging the country into civil war. Although Najibullah did not have a Gorbachev pledge of sustained help like Biden’s to Ghani of “sticking with you”, it was no cakewalk for Mujahideen. India is still warily engaging Taliban.

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal.)

In theory, the transition will now be genuinely Afghan-owned, Afghan-led and Afghan-controlled. But how much of it will translate into reality?

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani and Chairman of High Council of National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah met US President Joe Biden last Friday at the White House, four days before the accelerated withdrawal of US troops by July 4, leaving behind 650 US combatants and 18,000 contractors for security of the US Embassy and counterterrorism missions. Biden has pledged to support the Afghan Government in diplomatic and humanitarian work as well as financially. Biden’s political, diplomatic, military and material support is open-ended coupled with the counsel that Afghans had to determine their own future: the transition in Afghanistan will now be genuinely Afghan-owned, Afghan-led and Afghan-controlled. Nato will coordinate with Turkish troops for Kabul airport’s security and training of Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). National Security Advisor Hamdullah Mohib has said Afghanistan does not need US troops but US combat support and logistics. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin has said US will have very effective over-the-horizon counterterrorism capabilities from bases in Gulf and platforms at sea. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has declared that US will be able to deal with any threat to US emanating from Afghanistan from outside, though Taliban continues to maintain links with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

What some US officials have said about troop withdrawal is not very inspiring, least of all, CENTCOM C-in-C, Gen Frank McKenzie’s pessimism about Kabul’s capability of withstanding Taliban onslaught. But Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen Mark Milley, sounds more hopeful: that 300,000 ANSF along with militia has the capability to hold fort. Director CIA, William Burns, says that US ability to collect intelligence and react to threats will diminish. Blinken too worries that the security situation would worsen, with Taliban making territorial gains.

On the ground, after May 1, the picture appears grim. US Special Envoy to Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, informed UNSC that 50 of 398 districts had fallen with fighting in 27 of 34 provinces. Taliban had launched its offensive after May 1, the original Trump deadline for troop withdrawal. Taliban’s strategy is to encircle a provincial capital — and capture it by taking districts around it. Kunduz province bordering Tajikistan is currently surrounded. It was captured in 2015 and again in 2016, damning a report by US Inspector General that Afghan troops were capable of independently defending provincial capitals. Six provincial capitals including Lashkar Gah (Helmand), Kandahar and Faryab are at imminent risk of falling. Lyons also noted that at places, Taliban won without firing a shot though in Faryab province, 22 elite commandoes under the local hero, Col Sohrab Azmi, were killed while retaking a district. ANSF has suffered huge casualties — 157 in one day alone in June, marking an overall increase in attrition of 30 per cent. Despite reports of Taliban undermining morale of ANSF, Afghan leadership is very confident that Kabul will not fall. Taliban are hailing troop withdrawal as victory in war. With a force of 80,000 to 100,000 fighters, it is definitely stronger than at any time since 2001. Taliban says it will not engage in dialogue with Kabul till foreign forces have left the soil of Islamic Emirate and any country providing bases to US will be considered an act of treachery. Taliban is determined to making maximum territorial gains as leverage before joining peace talks during the sensitive stage of transition when defending troops are vulnerable. US intelligence has forecast the fall of Kabul within six to 12 months, maximum two years.

CIA rates chances of Kabul Government surviving for two to three years if no power-sharing Government is formed. A report claiming Taliban can take 12 provincial capitals and hold them for one year certainly inflates their capability.

US Ambassador to UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said there is no military solution and any Government established by use of force will not be legitimate and not recognised. CIA had predicted the fall of Kabul within two weeks after Soviet withdrawal in 1989-90.

The Mujahideen attacked Jalalabad with help from ISI but failed to take it. President Najibullah held on for two years and Kabul caved in only when Soviet funding was stopped. What is the actual ground position is always difficult to decipher though at present it is advantage Taliban.

With foreign forces withdrawn, a new chapter will begin in Afghanistan. US withdrawal being unconditional is unarguably irresponsible, putting at risk gains of two decades of democracy. For the intra-Afghan dialogue to resume, the Taliban must be disabused of the notion that Kabul can be won militarily. The presence of 650 US soldiers and over-the-horizon support is considered a sufficient safety net not to invoke memories of Saigon in 1975. My hunch is Taliban will soon mount spectacular attacks in trying to capture one or two provincial capitals and offer to resume talks.

Whether a limited ceasefire will accompany is uncertain. But Taliban must be convinced that a power-sharing option is better than gambling for an unwinnable military solution. Taliban knows none of the regional powers, including Pakistan, will tolerate a military solution and an Islamic Emirate. Taliban’s Quetta Shura should accept what is being offered on a platter than risk plunging the country into civil war. Although Najibullah did not have a Gorbachev pledge of sustained help like Biden’s to Ghani of “sticking with you”, it was no cakewalk for Mujahideen. India is still warily engaging Taliban.

(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal.)