Focusing on the Valley, the Centre can’t ignore Jammu's aspirations for restoring Dogra identity and culture
Prime Minister Narendra Modi set the roadmap for ‘Naya Jammu & Kashmir’ following the June 24 meeting with the region’s political leaders. There was the usual scepticism about the Jammu region being under-represented or the Gupkar Alliance’s willingness to talk beyond its demand for restoration of Article 370. Both sides were surprised at the end of the meeting. No leader boycotted it. It had no pre-set agenda and yet it concluded without acrimony. There was no talk at all about separatism or Pakistan. It sent shock waves across the border and to the pro-Pakistan lobby in the Valley with both of them noticing their relevance steadily erode since August 5, 2019. Such a situation where a majority of the hearts now flutter for India is difficult for Pakistan to digest. If at all there is unanimity in Pakistan, which is usually divided on all issues, it is on the issue of keeping J&K on the boil. Once the Pakistani establishment realised that it is not only losing ground in Kashmir but also the summer of 2021 may see a return to normalcy, it activated its “dirty tricks” department headed by ISI to disturb the chances of peace and tranquility in the Valley. The ISI has been active in the Muslim-majority districts of Poonch, Doda, and Kishtwar but without much success. However, the probability of sleeper cells cannot be ruled out. Reports suggest a network of cells being in place in the hilly areas of Kathua district adjoining Udhampur. Desperate attempts have also been made to target Jammu to provoke communal riots. It goes to the credit of Jammu Police and its intelligence sleuths that none of the attempts succeeded. Pakistan’s desperation can be gauged from its attempt to escalate the conflict with the use of armed UAVs to attack the Indian Air Force base at Satwari, Jammu.
This has given a wake-up call to the Indian security establishment with Pakistan using the aerial route to strike at our assets. Earlier it had adopted suicide attacks and later the sea route for the Mumbai attacks. Buoyed by the success of drone attacks during the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, Pakistan procured them from its all-weather friend China and new-found friend Turkey.
The aerial attack exposed gaping holes in our air defence systems and ground surveillance considering that the drones infiltrated and exfiltrated without being challenged. The terrorists may take this route again. India will soon have a counter-strategy in place to deter the enemy.
Economic revival in any form does not suit Pakistan’s game plan. Targeted killings of political workers, policemen, and minority communities will continue to terrorise locals and derail the political process to thwart the emergence of democracy as the peoples’ favourite choice.
On the political horizon, the Gupkar Alliance, cracks in which are obvious, will continue to exist on paper with each constituent party pursuing its own agenda to keep its vote bank happy. The demand for restoration of 370 will continue to simmer but remain subdued. The demand for the return of statehood before the elections will gain ground. However, these parties will keep shifting goalposts depending upon which way wind is blowing in Delhi.
The Centre, while focusing on the happenings in the Valley, can ill-afford to ignore Jammu anymore. The aspirations of the local Dogr as coupled with the restoration of Dogra identity, culture, and heritage have become a major binding force among the local youth. Jammu is no more willing to suffer Kashmiri hegemony and will watch every move of the Union Government closely. The government will have to do a fine balancing act while taking any decision about the political future of J&K.
(The writer is a Jammu-based political commentator and security and strategic analyst. The views expressed are personal.)
