There is information on how farmers gain because of data availability but there is no data on how much they have lost due to a wrong forecast
For those of us living in metropolises and other urban areas, weather forecasts are mostly a dreary flow of information on temperature, humidity levels and possibilities of rainfall. Urban dwellers are more worried about pollution levels, the ambient Air Quality Index (AQI) and whether the next few days will see the city enveloped in choking smog. Keeping abreast of the smog quotient is vital for urban dwellers as it not only impacts their health and outdoor activities but would also mean kicking in of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP), which includes measures such as prohibition on entry of trucks, ban on construction activities, introduction of odd and even scheme for private vehicles, shutting of schools, closure of brick kilns, hot mix plants and stone crushers, shutting down of power plants, ban on diesel generator sets, bonfires and garbage burning in landfills and so on. But apart from concerns about smog and the AQI in the winter months, weather forecasts are not so vital for city dwellers. In fact, during the monsoon season they are a butt of jokes owing to the inaccuracy of predictions.
But in other parts of India, away from the towering skyscrapers and pollution, where the highest landmarks are either trees or mountains, weather forecasts are a vital source of information. The farming community of India relies heavily on weather inputs and growers plan their crop cycles, rotation patterns, pesticide use and so on, based on them. Thankfully, over the decades, the dissemination of weather-related information has made major progress. And owing to vast cellular networks and affordable smartphone technologies, farmers in many remote parts of India have weather data literally on their fingertips.
However, these conditions, as heartening as they may seem, do not exist uniformly throughout the realm of Indian agriculture and some serious anomalies exist in the form of stark economic disparities within the agricultural community. Even as farmers with sizeable land holdings, access to funds, quality seeds, livestock and farm equipment struggle to make a profit, the condition of small and marginal farmers remains abominable and seems to get worse with each passing year. Even decades of economic progress of the nation do not seem to have improved the lot of these underprivileged farmers whose fragmented landholdings are unable to produce bumper crops.
This ensures that the farmer keeps getting deeply entangled in the complex web of debt and falling produce. Knee-jerk policies, such as the recent farm Acts, that raise doubts about the welfare of the growers, make matters worse. Given these trying conditions, information on what the weather will bring in coming days is truly a God-sent facility for all farmers. Particularly given the fact that climate change-related disasters are wreaking havoc on the farm sector. In 2019-20, extreme weather events adversely impacted 14 million hectares of farmland in India. A recent survey by the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) underscored the importance of timely delivery of weather-related information to growers and concluded that it had a significantly positive impact on their income.
The survey, based on interviews with nearly 4,000 agriculturalists, helped gauge the economic impact of India’s investments in the National Monsoon Mission (NMM) and High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities. The findings showed that mitigation, risk-avoidance and precautionary activities undertaken on the basis of weather information paid off for the farmers.
Similarly, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) in association with the Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) sent Agrometeorological Advisories to 22 million farmers, through a network of 130 agro-met field units. It was found that 80 per cent of the farmers who had utilised these advisories could avoid severe crop-related losses. However, the flow of information through these advisories is also not without problems.
In February 2018, the IMD issued storm and thundershower warnings for Maharashtra’s Nashik belt, which is traditionally a grape-growing region with nearly 1,00,000 tonnes of grape export to its credit each year. The advisory compelled the grape farmers to advance their harvest process to escape the weather event. But soon, the IMD withdrew its forecast, resulting in premature grape harvest in the region and heavy expenses were incurred by the farmers on labour for the same. These instances spoil the credibility of the IMD and alienate farmers. In order to avoid these conditions, the department must work on firming up its forecast ability and ensure that retractions are not commonplace as they play havoc with the farming community’s fortunes.
Additionally, weather advisories are sometimes generic and lack district-level specifications, leaving the growers confused whether or not to take action to protect their crop. The IMD must overcome this flaw so that agriculturalists are able to derive full benefit of a properly-issued forecast that is high on both minutiae details and accuracy. There is information available on how farmers are gaining because of weather data availability but there is no comprehensive data on how much they have lost due to a hastily-issued and retracted weather forecast or other forecast-related negligence. No information does not mean that it has not happened. The Government must compile authentic data in this regard so that the extent of the problem is realised and countermeasures are taken.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)
