India-US Relations in the Age of Uncertainty 

Author- BM Jain

Publisher- Routledge, price not mentioned

It is an intriguing time at the moment for the two democracies, India and the US. This book presents a comprehensive and insightful account of the chequered Indo-US relations and makes strong arguments for deepening the strategic partnership between the world’s oldest democracy and the largest democracy, explains Rup Narayan Das

Although the book under review was published last year, before Donald Trump assumed the office of US presidency, the title of the book resonate the current state of India-US relations in the post Obama phase. Rising nationalism and protectionism, particularly the issue of H1B visa issue, are going to be the major challenges before Indo-US relations. The two countries and their successive leaders have built the relationship from estranged democracies to engaged democracies notwithstanding the change of leadership in both the countries. As the review appears in the columns of this paper, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in the US to engage with the country and to have dialogue and discussion with President Donald Trump. The strategic community and foreign policy analysts in the two countries and elsewhere as well are eagerly waiting for the precise outcome of the visit. There are, however, certain enduring basics and fundamentals in the dynamics of the relationship between the two countries, which have been built in recent years.

This book written by a very distinguished professor and a perceptive observer and analyst of India’s foreign policy argues that India-US relationship is anchored in an edifice of ‘complex interdependence’, a theoretical model which he has very aptly replicated in the narrative of India-US relationship. The model of complex interdependence was originally conceived by Robert O Keohane and Joseph Nye in their book Power and Interdependence published in 2012. The author writes that according to Keohane and Nye complex interdependence has reversed three assumptions of realistic approach to the understanding of international politics. In the first place it questions the realistic assumption that the “states are the only significant actors”, secondly it also challenges that “security is the dominant goal” and thirdly that “force is the dominant instrument”. In short, the author writes, that Keohane and Nye underline that realism is “insufficient” to explain the complexity of the changing world order in which economic, political, and cultural globalisation has brought the “world closer to complex interdependence on certain issues-for example, climate change and financial markets. This apart, they have attempted to bring home the point that in the era of global interdependence in economic, trade, investment, and “flow of business”, hierarchy among issues no longer remains valid. According to the author, Keohane and Nye argue that foreign economic policy “touches more domestic economic activity than in the past”.

After elucidating the changing dynamics of international relations and geo-politics, Keohane and Nye argue that the 9/11 incident altered the contours of the international system. The US “war on terror” involved escalating costs in human and material terms; implied, America is neither in a position to bear the cost on its own nor can it afford to fight single-handedly. The author writes, “in other words, the tragic events of 9/11 increased the level of interdependence extraordinarily.” It was in this context that “a long-term vulnerability of the United States to terrorism obligated key officials in the White House to reset US relations with India”, the author argues. Regrettably, the US had to wait for a crisis like 9/11 to happen to come to terms with India’s consistent position on terrorism including state terrorism in India’s immediate neighbourhood all these years. Yet another compelling factor for the outreach of US towards India is the rise of China. In the same chapter, he writes that India-US security relations are mutually dependent. Both have a common interest in ensuring the security of sea lanes in the Indian Ocean in the face of rising piracy threat to smooth transaction of goods through the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malaca.

While making a comparison between the Indo-US relations with that of US-China, the author argues that the security realm bears a stronger imprint of complex interdependence in Indo-US ties than does the interweave of the economies of America and China which makes their economic and trade ties interdependent, although not without irritant and mutual mistrust.

Besides the introductory chapter providing the framework of “complex interdependence”, the book has six chapters. The Second chapter deals with the India-US relations during the cold war era. The third chapter is devoted to India-US civil nuclear energy cooperation. The fourth chapter deals with defence and security relations. The fifth chapter analyses India-US strategic dialogue. The sixth chapter elucidates the China factor in India-US relations. In this chapter, the author makes the observation that China will remain a complicating factor in India-US relations, in view of the countries’ sharp differences over strategic goals, whether in South and Central Asia, in Afghanistan, or in the Middle East. This is quite natural since China and the US do not have identical challenges, risks and threats given their asymmetric power structure. He argues, for America China is more important than India for several overriding reasons including burgeoning US-China trade, which touches over $500 billion, five times greater than the volume of India-US trade. Also by virtue of China’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council, its vote on critical important issues related to conflict and peace is indispensable for the United States. The author concludes, “China’s potential threat to the national interest of India and the United States will remain a compelling factor in forging closer ties between them.” India, however, knows well that China is its mighty neighbour and engagement with China is not an option, but a strategic necessity. Finally the seventh chapter of the book is the concluding one throwing light on the challenges, opportunities, and future directions of the India-US relations. The book presents a very comprehensive and insightful account of the chequered Indo-US relations and makes strong arguments deepening the strategic partnership between world’s oldest democracy and the largest democracy. The survey of literature in the book is exhaustive. The book is perhaps first of its kind to posit  India-US relations in the framework “complex interdependence”.

The reviewer is an independent foreign policy analyst. Views expressed are personal