Parties use every muscle to ace the caste math

Voting pattern is no different from rest of the State in Gautam Buddh Nagar. Caste chemistry acts as a catalyst and any political party has to get its caste configuration right to influence electorates in the region. In Gautam Buddh Nagar lok Sabha seat, the permutation of Gujjar-Muslim voters has always been important in tweaking poll results. With the support of the Dalits and Gujjar-Muslim votes, Surendra Singh Nagar of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), who is a Gujjar, registered his victory in 2009. Though he has been denied ticket this time by BSP supremo Mayawati, Nagar has turned to Samajwadi Party (SP) and the party has chosen Satish Awana (also a Gujjar) as its candidate.

Following the Muzaffarnagar riots last year, there is apparent alienation among minority with Samajwadi Party this time. It is the party which inveigles Dalits, Gujjars and consolidated Muslims to its fold which may well lead the hustings in Gautam Buddh Nagar. 

Given the turn of events in the State, the BSP seems to have an edge. However, the magic of BJP’s prime ministerial probable Narendra Modi may well work for the saffron party here. After denial of ticket to sitting Member of Parliament (MP) Nagar, he may prove to be BSP’s wet blanket. The BJP has fielded its MlA Dr Mahesh Sharma from the Noida seat.

Since the BSP and the SP had announced candidature of Narendra Singh Bhati and Surendra Singh Nagar, both Gujjars, almost a year back, political pundits had predicted a split in votes of this caste. But in the meantime, the BSP changed its candidate by fielding Satish Awana, a new entrant who has marginal support of the people, by replacing Nagar.

Irate, Nagar, who has mass support among Gujjars, Muslims and Dalits, switched to the SP.  Muslims have always thrown their weight behind a candidate who seems strong enough to stonewall BJP in Gautam Buddh Nagar. It is obvious they are going to follow suit again. However, the recent riots in Muzaffarnagar may well influence their voting pattern as well. However, local leaders claim since Nagar has close affinity with the Muslims, the community may vote for Samajwadi Party.

“Since our community wants to stem the tide of communal forces, our votes will go in support of the candidate who can trounce the saffron fold. We have been convening meetings within the community and the move will be decided shortly,” said a minority religious leader in Noida, skirting the question on Muzaffarnagar riots.  

It would be important to mention that in the year 2009, the BSP candidate Nagar successfully contested the election by gaining support of Gujjar-Muslim combine and Dalits. The BJP candidate Sharma lost the seat by a slim margin as the Congress nominee, Ramesh Chandra Tomar, a BJP rebel and four-time MP from Ghaziabad, had chewed up more than 1 lakh cadre votes of BJP. Tomar is again contesting from the same party and may well prove to be a killjoy for Sharma.