Russia has suspended its part of the deal allowing Ukraine to ship grain from its Black Sea ports safely amid a monthslong war, and it appears that the remaining partners are now left to take their chances.
On Monday, Ukraine said a dozen ships had sailed despite initially reporting that more than 200 vessels, many loaded and ready to travel, were stuck after Russia's weekend announcement. Such exports are crucial: Ukraine and Russia are key global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food to countries in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia where many are already struggling with hunger.
But it's not immediately clear who would choose to take the risk of sailing from Ukraine without Russia's protection after Moscow alleged a Ukrainian drone attack against its Black Sea fleet. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said implementing the grain deal is “hardly feasible” in a situation when “Russia talks about the impossibility of guaranteeing the safety of navigation in the mentioned areas.”
Here is what Russia's decision could mean for a world increasingly worried about food security and high food prices:
WHAT HAS THE DEAL ACHIEVED?
The grain initiative has been a rare example of cooperation between Ukraine and Russia since Russia’s invasion in February. Brokered by the United Nations and Turkey, it has allowed more than 9 million tons of grain in 397 ships to safely leave Ukrainian ports. The grain agreement has brought down global food prices about 15% from their peak in March, according to the U.N., and the U.N. secretary-general had urged Russia and Ukraine to renew the deal when it expires Nov. 19.
Wheat futures prices jumped more than 5% on Monday in Chicago following Russia's move, while key oil futures prices rose in Asian markets.
A spokeswoman for the Joint Coordination Center overseeing the logistics and inspection of ships didn’t immediately respond to questions Monday about which vessels might sail after Russia suspended its role.
Before the grain deal was brokered, the United States and European partners accused Russia of starving vulnerable parts of the world by denying exports from one of the world’s major grain producers.
Since the deal, Russian President Vladimir Putin has alleged that most of the exported grain was going to Europe instead of the world’s hungriest nations. Experts have said many shipments are fulfilling business deals but have played an important role in stabilizing grain markets, even if data by the deal’s monitor has shown that relatively few ships have had African nations as their destination.
The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development said in a report published last week that wheat is mostly going to developing countries, saying nearly 20% of exported wheat has gone to the least developed countries.
Ukraine has said more than 5 million tons have been exported to African and Asian nations, with 190,000 tons of wheat sent to countries struggling with hunger that are getting relief from the U.N. World Food Program.
A ship carrying 30,000 tons of wheat for Ethiopia under that program sailed Monday, Ukraine said, one of a dozen ships with more than 354,000 tons of agricultural products that sailed after the U.N. and Turkey agreed on the traffic of ships through the humanitarian corridor. They continue pursuing full implementation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.