If early trends from an assortment of polls is anything to go by, establishment favourites for the 2016 US presidential race in both parties may be in for a hard time. Republican billionaire Donald Trump and Democratic socialist Bernie Sanders have upset the early favourites in their respective parties, Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton, in varying degrees.
Until Trump plunged into the race in mid-June, Bush, the former Florida Governor and son and brother of two former US Presidents, was viewed as a favourite for the Republican ticket in terms of his standing in polls and fund-raising ability.
And in the Democratic arena, Clinton was at such a high perch that very few ventured to enter the race and challenge her. The 73-year-old Sanders, an Independent Senator from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, was regarded as an outlier who would fade out before long. Much to the surprise of pollsters and pundits, both Trump and Sanders have been soaring in a series of polls in recent weeks. While Trump is leading the crowded Republican field of 17 aspirants by a comfortable margin, Sanders, who has been attracting the biggest crowds so far this election cycle, has just pulled off a surprise by taking a lead over Clinton in New Hampshire, but still trailing by a big margin in Iowa — the two small but key States that kick off the US presidential primaries in in February.
A new CNN/ORC poll dealing with Iowa indicates that the Trump magic continues, no matter the controversy surrounding his comments during last week’s inaugural Republican debate. Trump leads the Republicans in Iowa with 22 per cent, followed by neurosurgeon Ben Carson (14 per cent) and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (9 per cent). Bush is in the seventh slot in this poll, with 5 per cent votes.