Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu made his first public appearance since a mercenary uprising demanded his ouster, inspecting troops in Ukraine in a video released on Monday aimed at projecting a sense of order after the country’s most serious political crisis in decades.
But uncertainty still swirled about his fate, that of rebellion leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and his private army, the impact on the war in Ukraine, and even the political future of President Vladimir Putin.
A feud between Wagner Group leader Prigozhin and Russia’s military brass that has festered throughout the war erupted into a mutiny that saw the mercenaries leave Ukraine to seize a military headquarters in a southern Russian city and roll seemingly unopposed for hundreds of miles toward Moscow, before turning around after less than 24 hours on Saturday.
The Kremlin said it had made a deal that Prigozhin will move to Belarus and receive an amnesty, along with his soldiers. There was no confirmation of his whereabouts on Monday, although a popular Russian news channel on Telegram reported he was seen at a hotel in the Belarusian capital, Minsk. Russian media reported a criminal probe against Prigozhin continued, and some lawmakers called for his head.
In a return to at least superficial normality, Moscow’s mayor announced an end to the “counterterrorism regime” imposed on the capital on Saturday, when troops and armoured vehicles set up checkpoints on the outskirts and authorities tore up roads leading into the city.
The Defence Ministry video of Shoigu came as Russian media speculated that he and other military leaders have lost Putin’s confidence and could be replaced.
Shoigu was shown in a helicopter and then meeting with officers at a military headquarters in Ukraine. The video was widely broadcast on Russian media, including state-controlled television. It was unclear when it was shot.
General Staff chief Gen Valery Gerasimov, also a main target of Prigozhin’s ire, has not appeared in public.It was unclear what would ultimately happen to Prigozhin and his forces under the deal purportedly brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday that Putin has given his word that Prigozhin will be allowed to go to Belarus.
The RIA Novosti state news agency cited unidentified sources in the Prosecutor General’s office as saying the criminal case against Prigozhin hasn’t been closed, despite earlier Kremlin statements. The Interfax news agency carried a similar report.
Should the case continue, Prigozhin’s presence in Belarus — a staunch Kremlin ally — would offer little protection against arrest and extradition.
It was unclear what resources Prigozhin has to draw on, and how much of his substantial wealth he can access. Police searching his St. Petersburg office on the day of the rebellion found 4 billion rubles (USD 48 million) in trucks outside the building, according to Russian media reports confirmed by the Wagner boss. He claimed the money was intended to pay soldiers’ families.
Several Russian lawmakers called for tight regulations of private military companies under a new law set to be considered — and some argued that Prigozhin must be punished. Andrei Gurulev, a retired general and currently a lawmaker who had a rift with the mercenary leader, said Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin, a former military officer who runs Wagner, deserve “a bullet in the head.”
“I firmly believe that traitors in wartime must be executed,” he said. Prigozhin appeared nonchalant in some of the last video taken during the rebellion. As a convoy carrying him in an SUV drove out of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don after its brief occupation on Saturday, he was asked how he viewed the result of his revolt, according to footage posted on Russian social media.