A swarm of Russian drones flies into Poland in what officials there regard as a deliberate provocation. NATO responds by bolstering the alliance’s air defences on its eastern flank. Moscow showcases its conventional and nuclear military might in long-planned exercises with Belarus, as it warns the West against sending foreign troops into Ukraine.
These events — all taking place in the month since the US-Russia summit meeting in Alaska failed to bring peace to Ukraine have only heightened tensions in eastern Europe. When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, it came days after joint maneuvers with Belarus. The latest sweeping drills, dubbed “Zapad 2025” — or “West 2025” — have worried NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania that border Belarus to the west.
The maneuvers include nuclear-capable bomber and warships, thousands of troops and hundreds of combat vehicles simulating a joint response to an enemy attack — including what officials said was planning for nuclear weapons use and options involving Russia’s new intermediate range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte referenced Moscow’s hypersonic missiles, noting that they shatter the notion that Spain or Britain are any safer than Russia’s neighbours of Estonia or Lithuania.
“Let’s agree that within this alliance of 32 countries, we all live on the eastern flank,” he said in Brussels. One year ago this month, Putin outlined a revision of Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, noting that any nation’s conventional attack on Russia that is supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on his country. That threat was clearly aimed at discouraging the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with longer-range weapons and appears to significantly lower the threshold for the possible use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
That doctrine also places Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella. Russia, which says it has deployed battlefield nuclear weapons to Belarus, plans to station Oreshnik missiles there as well later this year. The Zapad 2025 exercise comes as Russia’s three-and-half-year-old war in Ukraine has dragged on despite President Donald Trump’s push for a peace deal and his August 15 meeting with Putin in Alaska.
On September 10, two days before the maneuvers started, about 20 Russian drones flew into Poland’s airspace. While Moscow denied targeting Poland and officials in Belarus alleged that the drones veered off course after being jammed by Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said it was a “provocation” that “brings us all closer to open conflict, closer than ever since World War II.”
Rutte branded Moscow’s action as “reckless” as he announced a new “Eastern Sentry” initiative to bolster the alliance’s air defences in the area. He also noted that in addition to Poland, “drones violate our airspace in Romania, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.” Russia’s Defence Ministry released video of nuclear-capable bombers on training missions as part of the drills that spread from Belarus, which borders NATO members Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, to the Arctic, where its naval assets practiced launches of nuclear-capable missiles, including the hypersonic Zircon missile.